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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0914

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 1 20:10:37 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 012010
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012010=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-012215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0914
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico into parts of west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 012010Z - 012215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all
    hazards will likely increase during the next few hours, and a watch
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective processing over the
    Texas South Plains, surface observations and visible satellite
    imagery show a remnant outflow boundary extending from southeastern
    New Mexico eastward into the Texas South Plains. Diurnal heating of
    a moist boundary layer in the vicinity of this boundary is yielding
    moderate surface-based instability this afternoon. Isolated
    convection is beginning to develop along the boundary, and this
    activity should continue to mature through the afternoon hours amid
    continued diurnal destabilization. Backed surface winds near the
    boundary beneath a belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow
    will contribute to 40-50+ kt effective shear with modest low-level
    hodograph curvature near the recovering outflow boundary. This will
    support organized convection including supercells capable of large
    hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. A watch may be
    needed for parts of the area.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 06/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7MgIugM-KBckTV9XWM_ivk_ISlmq9l9dgCkwRHQj_dhg0DVTmS9Abqys6swZ3BIPnjyzmAy09= plZnBf0-P4VJpvNMSQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33190043 33320026 33419991 33309963 32969961 32529970
    32270006 32180054 32080103 32050175 32080245 32150290
    32320319 32620358 32880375 33220384 33500378 33740356
    33810328 33660284 33440234 33310186 33050101 33060070
    33190043=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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