ACUS11 KWNS 312342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312342=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-010145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0911
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251...

Valid 312342Z - 010145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong convection will spread across the remainder of
ww251 over the next few hours. A local extension may be warranted
across portions of the TX Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level short-wave trough is ejecting across NM
early this evening. A considerable amount of convection has evolved
ahead of this feature from north-central NM, arcing southeast into
the TX South Plains. Numerous cell mergers have resulted in several
clusters that are likely still producing hail near 1 inch at times.
Latest diagnostic data suggests 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE persists ahead
of this activity into the southern TX Panhandle region. Given the
flow regime, it appears this convection will continue to propagate
northeast ahead of the short wave with an attendant threat for hail
and some gusty winds.

..Darrow.. 05/31/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9T3DjWxv0OxguqivgLZxsQitX75L7XyhnEzkyEaeH2sxyHoZ4mXBT82-m6CrTp9l7_OHQhMde= 6sMD8ZBf4Bl6FnP20Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31160492 35580561 35580258 31160204 31160492=20


=3D =3D =3D
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