ACUS11 KWNS 302220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302220=20
KSZ000-MOZ000-310015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Northwest MO to south-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 302220Z - 310015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and gusty winds may be noted with
strongest storms this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of late-night convection that spread across
the central Plains have drifted into southeast NE/northeast KS. Over
the last few hours, robust convection has redeveloped within the
cloud-debris field, in advance of an old MCV. Ample instability
currently resides across southern/eastern KS which should support a
few strong storms within an otherwise weak-flow regime. Latest MRMS
data suggests hail is noted within the stronger updrafts but is
generally 1 inch or less. Gusty winds may also be noted with this
activity as it propagates southeast within a weakly sheared but
modestly steep lapse rate environment.

..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Xro3hWv_8qtk30xadzjMjHD5uKOFe0AR5eKNa0sTywZWBnug0ZPnWQH9-XAkOoWJR-jB0v1V= npHzRhoPPTvlND6-hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38269798 38709642 39999549 39889465 38599497 37739618
37589779 38269798=20


=3D =3D =3D
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