ACUS11 KWNS 302202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302201=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0901
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 302201Z - 310000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon.
Storms will moving east of the higher terrain will eventually
encounter greater moisture and intensity. Strong to severe wind
gusts are the primary hazards. Isolated large hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms developing within the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and have generally been slow to move east and have shown pulses in
intensity over the past hour or so. As these storms move east, they
will encounter greater moisture/buoyancy and will likely intensify.
A reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE sits just into western Kansas
southward into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Flow aloft is not
particularly strong; however, with a subtle shortwave moving into
New Mexico per water vapor imagery, some breakdown in the shortwave
ridging in the region is noted. Area VWP have captured a modest
increase in 6 km winds (25-30 kts). Modestly organized storms in
this very steep mid-level lapse rate environment will likely produce
strong to severe outflow winds. A few initial updrafts may also
produce large hail. Based on the current evolution of storms and
recent guidance, it seems probable that storms will first intensify
in western Kansas before farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is likely late this afternoon.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!95MypILX6gpaYc-nC_lb5rE0zW8xYSFCk0d2CtSnVH3rp8z8vowTCDdw_t6eIuHIWnZBLqzqV= _vRO4iC9i-EuvQYwBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38200151 37760067 36510052 35280104 34830125 34770167
34830279 35200304 35820311 36840311 37950272 38200151=20


=3D =3D =3D
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