ACUS11 KWNS 302135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302134=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-302300-
Mesoscale Discussion 0900
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023
Areas affected...Central High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20
Valid 302134Z - 302300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...High-based convection is expected to increase across the
central High Plains this evening. Severe winds are the greatest
risk, though isolated large hail can be expected.
DISCUSSION...Surface heating across the central High Plains has
minimized inhibition in the lee of the Rockies from southeast WY
into northeast CO. As a result, scattered convection is beginning to
increase in areal coverage, especially across southeast WY. This
activity appears to be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance that is
shifting east toward the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level
inflow should contribute to eastward propagation as some increase in
LLJ is expected after sunset. Additionally, scattered cu field is
deepening along a weak surface boundary, just north of I-70 over
northwest KS. Thunderstorms may continue to cluster along this zone
of preferential low-level convergence over the next few hours.
Severe winds should be the primary risk as convection organizes over
the High Plains and potentially grows upscale as it progresses
downstream this evening.
..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6GnBi0XiLM_B1Cf81wJ1vdpltEOtPSnKtR_tsmJZf3AF1otyK4O2f_v-ogmkefNfutk36CfwM= r1G_F0gDtMrofTWtgw$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40210363 42160389 42430248 41120137 39199971 38910196
40210363=20
=3D =3D =3D
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