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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0899

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 30 20:06:25 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 302006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302005=20
    MNZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0899
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0305 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 302005Z - 302230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are
    possible across parts of central and northern Minnesota this
    afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a gradually
    deepening boundary-layer cumulus field in the vicinity of a weak
    confluence zone draped across parts of west-central Minnesota this
    afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid somewhat sheltered
    boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) near the confluence
    zone and a mesoscale low should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the next few hours.

    Within the pre-convective environment, weak low-level warm-air
    advection beneath a belt of strengthening midlevel westerly flow
    should yield around 30-35 kt of effective shear with modest
    low-level hodograph curvature. This wind profile, coupled with the
    development of moderate surface-based instability will conditionally
    support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and
    locally damaging winds. Current thinking is that the severe threat
    may remain relatively isolated given the subtle forcing for ascent,
    though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_jAYbz9-g7kTztzTqPJRQ17pOTudxpPp2jFcJNbVvUdMJ3RU5KWfQFEs70_yehWLQCF4Zzd2z= J2Gd5OVUGnYIgmrmlw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 45229335 44939384 44869438 44849504 44989544 45469577
    45889567 46409546 46919529 47349514 47959498 48089488
    48259450 48289398 48209349 48019314 47719296 46999277
    46319280 45919294 45229335=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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