ACUS11 KWNS 292301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292300=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

Valid 292300Z - 300100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across ww248
this evening. Hail continues to be the main threat.

DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level short-wave trough is currently evident
in water-vapor imagery extending from eastern MT into extreme
northwest NE. This feature will advance east this evening with the
southern extent expected to influence convection that has developed
across portions of central/northern NE. Latest diagnostic data
suggests 25-30kt 500mb flow will overspread the northern half of
ww248 where modest instability (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) currently resides
ahead of a lee surface trough from near OGA to near ANW. Isolated
robust convection has evolved along this corridor and several
updrafts appear to have hail on the order of 1 inch at times. Hail
remains the primary risk, though gusty winds are also possible. This
activity will shift slowly east this evening as weak LLJ shifts into
northeast NE-southwest MN after sunset.

..Darrow.. 05/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9syxyip1AQiNUYJ6cI89AtdPtamFwDOXWcpA1a07LVF9JPkPw2x1xubOK9-N3moWRu4cwsf1A= p7YPz8ljLHHaLXE27E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40500361 42870093 42879818 40510093 40500361=20


=3D =3D =3D
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