ACUS11 KWNS 292215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292214=20
TXZ000-292345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0895
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 292214Z - 292345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a
westward-moving boundary. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are
possible with the most intense storms. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed along a westward-moving
Gulf breeze boundary. These storms are also aided by a weak trough
moving through South Texas. Thus far, these storms have developed
and intensified due to steep mid-level lapse rates and around 30 kts
of effective shear (per mesoanlysis and area VAD profiles). However,
the westward speed of the boundary is fast enough that storms
quickly get undercut and weaken rather quickly. Additional
development is most probable along the boundary. Storms will be
capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Should the
boundary slow, it is possible that a storm could persist along it
for a longer duration. The 12Z observed BRO sounding showed some
warm air aloft around 800 mb. This casts some uncertainty on how far
south storm robust storm development will occur.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4XHlg5cAxqTmC_VnNc3TYsIp7KOfSuCYnfHFnYF-OZ8Lbd6b6uOkVOxixl0rafCp7b00nM0hU= XlcXQHDY7D_Qyd614E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 28429940 28829905 28669857 28309835 27829820 27119814
26459815 26009830 25959879 26379918 28429940=20


=3D =3D =3D
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