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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0893

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 29 18:25:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 291825
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291824=20
    SDZ000-292100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0893
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 291824Z - 292100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for isolated large hail and perhaps strong
    to locally severe gusts should increase during the next few hours
    across western South Dakota.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops depict a low-amplitude
    shortwave trough tracking eastward across eastern MT this afternoon.
    Along the southern periphery of this feature, regional VWP data
    shows a belt of strengthening westerly midlevel flow overspreading
    parts of western South Dakota -- where isolated convective
    initiation is ongoing in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Continued
    diurnal heating ahead of this activity (and removal of low-level
    CINH) should support a modest uptick in convective intensity given
    the strengthening deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt of effective
    shear). Given subtle large-scale ascent over this region, discrete/semi-discrete storms should favor isolated large hail,
    though locally severe gusts are also possible with the stronger
    cores. The overall severe threat should remain too isolated/marginal
    for a watch.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UbCIyF4ZgvwrqmvfKcDv0etBzjTvwS4NJUHjfLg1nKbafmQYqYZNmjviLR2nSowKcemeDF1O= ANr6YEeDoAH0dX-2IQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43470346 43620376 43870387 44760391 45250393 45550390
    45790370 45860327 45860277 45760243 45520223 45280209
    44860207 44450210 43980218 43610235 43440271 43420311
    43470346=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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