• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0892

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 29 00:31:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 290031
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290030=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-290200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0892
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0730 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

    Areas affected...far eastern NM...TX South Plains and Caprock

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 290030Z - 290200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts appear to be the primary threat
    going forward this evening with the more intense storms.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the
    adjacent parts of eastern NM/west TX early this evening. The 00 UTC
    Midland, TX raob showed moderate buoyancy (1300 J/kg MLCAPE). The
    environment is slightly more moist near Lubbock with lower 60s deg F
    dewpoints sampled by the West TX Mesonet sites. Steeper 700-500 mb
    lapse rates were also observed at Amarillo compared to Midland (8.4
    vs. 7.4 deg C/km) along with stronger mid- to high-level flow.=20
    Given this environmental analysis, expecting a higher probability
    for isolated severe storms with north extent in the TX South Plains.
    Severe gusts 60-80 mph are possible with the stronger storms this
    evening before this threat gradually subsides during the late
    evening/early overnight.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 05/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BXPMCkcLWu4jz6iyP-m1doaGQ53tp8svw6NzR4XFu4VhprIF9vo_df4c2BeIIjtMZBCBPrPw= iZMkhG6MJxFQp7CSlQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32310326 33330291 33540307 33620359 33870374 34360351
    34630324 34650126 34380095 33680133 32260233 32070262
    32100299 32310326=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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