ACUS11 KWNS 290031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290030=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-290200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023
Areas affected...far eastern NM...TX South Plains and Caprock
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 290030Z - 290200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts appear to be the primary threat
going forward this evening with the more intense storms.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the
adjacent parts of eastern NM/west TX early this evening. The 00 UTC
Midland, TX raob showed moderate buoyancy (1300 J/kg MLCAPE). The
environment is slightly more moist near Lubbock with lower 60s deg F
dewpoints sampled by the West TX Mesonet sites. Steeper 700-500 mb
lapse rates were also observed at Amarillo compared to Midland (8.4
vs. 7.4 deg C/km) along with stronger mid- to high-level flow.=20
Given this environmental analysis, expecting a higher probability
for isolated severe storms with north extent in the TX South Plains.
Severe gusts 60-80 mph are possible with the stronger storms this
evening before this threat gradually subsides during the late
evening/early overnight.
..Smith/Grams.. 05/29/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BXPMCkcLWu4jz6iyP-m1doaGQ53tp8svw6NzR4XFu4VhprIF9vo_df4c2BeIIjtMZBCBPrPw= iZMkhG6MJxFQp7CSlQ$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32310326 33330291 33540307 33620359 33870374 34360351
34630324 34650126 34380095 33680133 32260233 32070262
32100299 32310326=20
=3D =3D =3D
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