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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0888

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 27 23:55:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 272354
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272354=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-280130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0888
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0654 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana into western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272354Z - 280130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible on an isolated
    basis. A watch is not anticipated this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated in two areas in the northern High
    Plains. First, convection developed within the higher terrain in
    central Montana and is moving slowly eastward. As this activity
    encounters greater buoyancy to the east, some potential for damaging
    winds and isolated large hail will exist. Uncertainty as to how far
    east this activity will push is high given the deep-layer wind field
    parallel to the convection. Across southeast Montana, more isolated
    cells have developed along outflow from convection to the south.
    These storms will have a greater large hail threat along with
    isolated damaging gusts. Lastly, a weak surface boundary appears
    evident in surface observations and visible satellite. Convergence
    is rather weak, but a storm or two could potentially develop and
    pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as well. At present, severe-caliber storms are expected to remain isolated and a watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dR8D6cikP3UJA4epoyHvA8d340jNDYr103uyVLUOHkXRqjZ2eb-vXTKTgdevfkZKhCA_PNtI= OuezClmWLRa7oLmVYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46560478 46060582 45780710 46800757 48120773 48830710
    48890628 48700409 48230291 48150282 47680231 47010223
    46600257 46670345 46710377 46690437 46560478=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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