• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 27 19:12:57 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271912=20
    SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0883
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...adjacent portions of northern
    Colorado and southwestern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 271912Z - 272145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm activity will continue to develop near
    and northeast through east of the Laramie Mountains and Front Range
    through 3-5 PM MDT, posing a risk for primarily severe hail and
    wind.

    DISCUSSION...Within surface troughing to the east/northeast of the
    Front Range and Laramie Mountains, boundary-layer moisture continues
    to slowly increase on south-southeasterly flow. Coupled with
    insolation, beneath thermodynamic profiles characterized by
    relatively cool mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates, this
    appears to be contributing to the development of moderately large
    CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. The initiation of scattered
    thunderstorms is already underway near the higher terrain, and
    inhibition is gradually weakening eastward into the plains.

    Beneath 20-30 kt southerly ambient mean flow, propagation off the
    higher terrain may initially be slow. However, forcing for ascent,
    associated with at least one perturbation embedded within weak
    larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the Great Basin/Rockies, is
    expected to contribute to increasingly widespread convection with
    consolidating surface cold pools through mid to late afternoon. As
    this occurs, stronger storms will tend to accelerate northeastward
    and eastward.

    Deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt flow in the 300-250 mb layer may be
    sufficient to support a few supercell structures posing a risk for
    severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado, initially, before activity
    grows upscale with a few strong surface gusts likely becoming the
    more prominent hazard.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Tg9-1tg-3mCxjmaVVx5ni1q_xh2ymkzLZ7A0UiDb6BmIyd-TqIuEjul2k3SWVMVkisGJEJfQ= X8a219EhadG_-WtUa8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 43990572 44990427 44280380 42920412 40790421 40550494
    40990539 42040549 42650597 42890635 43990572=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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