ACUS11 KWNS 271812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271811=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-272015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico and west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271811Z - 272015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of large to very large
hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will increase between
19-21Z. A watch is likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
cumulus focused along a lee trough immediately east of the higher
terrain in eastern NM this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid
moist east-southeasterly upslope flow (upper 50s dewpoints) will
support widely scattered thunderstorm development during the next
couple hours -- with an initial focus near the intersection of the
lee trough and an east-west-oriented remnant outflow boundary in
east-central NM.=20

Strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow (per regional VWP)
will allow storms to spread eastward off the higher terrain into an
environment characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around
2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30-40 kt of effective shear. Long, generally
straight hodographs and subtle large-scale ascent should initially
favor discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells capable of large
to very large hail (around 2 inch diameter) and damaging winds.
However, backed surface winds/enhanced low-level shear and sheltered boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of the remnant outflow
boundary could allow for a couple tornadoes with any
stronger/longer-lived updrafts. With time, enhanced outflow
generation and cell mergers could yield localized upscale growth
into several organized clusters.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hlnLRttbiXESzIDdD6ZGToKTdmC219hgih0V6jk6hyyx7bFBrjKWfrr3Nr5Tom9QwOxH1R7r= c0cDahpsLnn_-8_1UA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35040271 34930234 34780201 34450188 33760195 33550211
33120265 33070314 33130374 33290425 33460464 33740496
34100522 34620537 34980539 35370526 35510503 35590479
35550434 35430396 35300358 35170313 35040271=20


=3D =3D =3D
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