ACUS11 KWNS 262303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262303=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0877
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into west Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...

Valid 262303Z - 270200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.

SUMMARY...Corridors of severe potential are forecast to develop
through this evening. Damaging hail and wind, as well as a couple
tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 23Z, several widely spaced areas of storms
extended from east-central NM southward toward the Davis Mtns, with
large hail the primary threat. While these storms are relatively far
apart, visible imagery and surface analysis show a wide area of
potential with a moist, unstable air mass in place.=20

A notable supercell over eastern Torrance County, NM will likely
remain severe as it moves east/southeast this evening. MLCAPE is
over 2000 J/kg in this area, with instability evidenced by towering
cumulus downstream. Damaging hail will remain likely, with
wind-driven hail possible if the storm grows/intensifies this
evening.

Other cells are attempting to develop into Eddy County NM, with a
substantial cumulus field noted, extending northwestward from
Roswell westward to the Sacramentos. Any cells that develop in this
region will have a very favorable environment for severe hail and
wind as they proceed east/southeast toward the Midland TX area.
Southeasterly low-level winds will maximize storm relative inflow
aiding storm longevity. Low-level shear will also be sufficient for
a couple tornadoes, especially for deviant/rightward motion off the
hodograph.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Tw7SUrPqf_X-p5xfUwj8TBuYEGzpkkACmH7v8ViC_q9Iw40hTWG2F_3eJMKjYhKW31fVk01p= DnueOx2TGiBMiya6Js$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29990327 30270410 30720443 32140527 32760539 33340557
34050569 34320565 34530552 34790529 34940499 35000443
34960395 34630332 34080278 33440231 32880208 32330188
31440172 30730162 30310179 30000216 29990327=20


=3D =3D =3D
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