ACUS11 KWNS 261951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261950=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-262145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern New Mexico and west Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261950Z - 262145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon/evening. One or
more watches will likely be needed later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Residual convective activity from an overnight MCS is
now moving through portions of northwest Texas, leaving a cold pool
in its wake across portions of west Texas into far southeastern New
Mexico. Visible satellite observations show gradual clearing
occurred over most of the region this morning into the early
afternoon, which has allowed for rapid airmass recovery and
destabilization, with the exception of the eastern slopes of the
Sacramento Mountains where cloud cover has remained. Where clearing
has occurred, surface temperatures have risen into mid 70s F amid
rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in
the 50s and low 60s F. These surface conditions, combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km, are yielding MLCAPE values
near 1500-2000 J/kg.=20

Meanwhile, water vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis depict an
approaching weak trough and associated vorticity maxima, embedded
within broad southwesterly mid-level flow. Backed low-level easterly
winds exist along and north or the remnant outflow, with
southeasterly upslope flow residing south of the boundary. These
conditions are yielding effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, which
should become more widespread with time.

Current satellite/radar trends show isolated convective development
occurring over the high terrain of central New Mexico, with repeated
convective attempts farther south along the Sacramento Range. Given
these trends and the aforementioned environmental conditions, the
current expectation is for a few focused corridors of supercells to
develop in proximity to the aforementioned regions, as well as
farther south over portions of west Texas, and spread east this
afternoon and evening. This scenario is supported by recent
CAMs/WoFS guidance. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should remain
the primary hazards. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible,
particularly with any storm that moves off the high terrain into the
richer low-level moisture/shear environment along and north of the
outflow boundary.

..Karstens/Hart.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56GxAD4KatqFkO069hUOd-BZh-H8i3UxVggtNoxdwIxQRd7f-xLtFIyTV6Btf6vG-AkqKu_ky= 31f6InMsp8MrTVx_IY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 30490269 30310381 31660476 32470528 32810575 33660583
34390639 34830676 35400611 35370468 34710312 33260238
31870231 30490269=20


=3D =3D =3D
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