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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0871

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 26 07:07:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260707
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260706=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-260900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0871
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

    Valid 260706Z - 260900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible over
    the next few hours from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. A small
    severe thunderstorm watch may be needed, depending upon convective
    trends over the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows an MCS from
    northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms are
    ongoing along the southwestern edge of the MCS, where the RAP has
    MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Additional storms have
    recently initiated further south, in the area southwest of Clovis.
    These storms are likely developing in response to warm advection
    associated with the strengthening low-level jet. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the
    southern Plains. The Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 45 to 50 kt of 0-6 km
    shear, which will support continued severe storm development. Wind
    damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The
    duration of the severe threat remains uncertain. Convective trends
    will be watched over the next hour to determine whether an
    additional watch will be needed.

    ..Broyles.. 05/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WzWu0MdBj5O6jOww1vx6uRNQUfqMUx4DSbYtglbNbSg0FxgR3Fw6hvR1YR8ouQdsAVShS7vI= MoDDPOEUmwNkDExV2w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34320185 33780224 33950361 34350430 34910411 35040326
    34740213 34320185=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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