ACUS11 KWNS 260421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260420=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-260615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...central/western parts
of the TX and OK Panhandles.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 260420Z - 260615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm potential should persist for at
least a few more hours well east of I-25 in northeastern New Mexico,
as well as across western/central parts of the TX and OK Panhandles.
Large to isolated very large hail will remain possible from
supercells, while any well-organized convection over the area will
offer damaging to severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased markedly in coverage over the
lifespan of the watch so far, predominantly in the form of three
processes:

1. An arching squall line that has moved out of southeastern CO and
the Raton Mesa area, and as of 04Z, extended from a nonsevere
segment over southwestern KS, across Texas County OK, the
northwestern TX Panhandle, to northeastern Harding County NM.
2. A persistent, slow-moving supercell that has produced
significant-severe hail reports (greater than 2 inches diameter) and
gusts (65 kt at TCC off its rear flank at 03Z).
3. A mix of supercells and multicells that has grown to occupy a
good deal of the space between the squall line and longstanding
supercell across northeastern NM.

The MCS (1) fronts a well-organized cold pool with substantial
theta-e and pressure perturbations, that only should expand as its
trailing portion merges with the multicells and supercells over NM
(2,3) and backbuilds somewhat. The northern part of the line will
encounter relatively weak low-level theta-e as it proceeds into the
eastern Panhandles and then may lose organization. However, with a
30-35-kt southeasterly LLJ -- sampled well by AMA/LBB VWP data --
expected to persist for several more hours over the central/southern
TX Panhandle region, some associated severe potential may persist
through the AMA vicinity. Modified RAOBs and forecast soundings
suggest 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 35-40-kt effective-shear magnitude,
and only slowly increasing MLCINH through around 07Z, supporting
continued severe potential with the southern part of the MCS and any
foregoing convection. Also, the LLJ will overtop the combined
outflow boundary/cold pool overnight. Additional severe
thunderstorms may form upshear from the TCC-area activity and move southeastward toward the western/southwestern Panhandle, also
offering severe hail and occasional strong/damaging gusts.

..Edwards.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Goh91u2HlSyoRohzM1xUIYRFMMjvOcZEi1B7yG6k5WaiP546giflpJah-Fvfse16foh4vGvj= 3KOCFTVO86dTlg0Ek8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34290304 34290374 34600372 34600406 35200412 35200451
35620448 35980432 36000337 36410232 36680195 37000184
36990095 36880095 36520093 36480105 34750109 34290304
34290304=20


=3D =3D =3D
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