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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0865

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 25 19:08:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 251908
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251907=20
    TXZ000-252030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0865
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the TX Trans-Pecos/Big Bend region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 251907Z - 252030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and localized severe
    gusts are expected to develop later this afternoon. Watch issuance
    is possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 19 UTC, visible satellite imagery depicts increasing
    cumulus across the TX Trans Pecos region, with recent attempts at
    convective initiation noted north and west of Marfa. Continued
    diurnal heating of a relatively moist environment will result in
    MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon, along with
    decreasing MLCINH. Despite the lack of any notable mid/upper-level
    shortwave troughs across the region, continued heating across the
    higher terrain will lead to isolated to widely scattered storm
    development by mid/late afternoon.=20

    Flow/shear within the lowest 3 km is expected to remain quite weak,
    but sufficient mid/upper-level flow will result in rather
    long/straight hodographs and effective shear of 35-45 kt. Initial
    development near the higher terrain may evolve into one or more
    splitting supercells, with a resulting threat of large hail
    (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter), localized severe
    gusts, and perhaps a tornado with any sustained right-moving
    supercell. Watch issuance is possible later this afternoon in
    response to these potential threats.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8i-PtRBEfvSIby0gcm8da9VZzE-BHH0wnA5W5gNv4s54beei1-Jlzk9apk_S8lck9v6TKCTAk= aAbnghxt5FZOhiFRCc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30550495 31450395 31560355 31410259 29760197 29750237
    29370260 29090270 28870312 28930376 29280446 30100486
    30550495=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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