• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0860

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 25 01:42:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 250142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250142=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-250315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0860
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0842 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 250142Z - 250315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue over the next few hours. New
    watch issuance need by 03z.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to move south and
    east across the New Mexico/Texas border. The strongest portion of
    this line was located near Curry County, where reports of 2 inch
    hail and gusts up to 90 mph have been reported, along with
    tornadoes. Trends in WoFs runs continue to show this portion of the
    line maintaining intensity and continuing to track southward through
    the evening. The rest of the broken line will continue to advance
    south and eastward through the evening as well. Along and ahead of
    this line, effective shear around 40-50kts and MLCAPE around
    1000-2000 J/kg will support continued embedded supercell hybrids
    with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Given these
    trends, a new watch will be needed by 03z.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4b8iOFbEciVwSar3qWwPAQGnmYX69q7QD3PMZoxa3FlRZ9wmspJ39MMk50QVSu-PI9si6z0A7= J9Ggwd2N19eKnaztz8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35540249 36190237 36280213 36270177 36240145 36180096
    35990076 35710068 35370064 35030063 34170063 33670070
    33380070 33130076 33010081 32970099 32930143 32980198
    32930270 32960350 33040377 33170391 33370398 33700396
    33930398 34030398 34180398 34280399 34320399 34410392
    34500352 34530310 34890254 35540249=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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