• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 24 22:44:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 242243
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242243=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-250045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0858
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0543 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma and
    Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

    Valid 242243Z - 250045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. Large hail and gusty
    winds continue to be the main hazards with ongoing storms.

    DISCUSSION...Storm development has been ongoing across portions of
    northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado. Storms are mixed
    mode with semi-discrete and clustered supercells ongoing. Mode
    within this region will likely be dictated by boundary interactions
    and storm mergers, as thunderstorms continue to develop and move
    toward the Texas border through the evening. The axis of most
    favorable instability and deep-layer shear remains across the
    Texas/New Mexico border. Storms may become more organized as they
    move within this regime, with large hail and gusty winds as the main
    concern in the near term.=20

    CAM guidance consensus suggests a broken line may develop toward the
    evening, with embedded supercell structures. Around 02-03z, a
    low-level jet will develop across southwestern Texas into the Texas
    Panhandle. The increase in surface flow will lead to more curved
    low-level hodograph shape and increasing potential for a tornado or
    two, if storm mode can maintain embedded supercell circulations.
    Should more upscale growth occur, the main threat may shift to
    damaging winds.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vjeaUHH5PKVI5A9nB5fd_fxLbX-MbcTD0VjRCeYF-87sKltOmaMFZVn8ywlkV-MTEXeywnvb= LLSBs0LiOT1mLYSg_E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36990396 36980361 36980316 36850264 36650248 36490240
    36300228 35960224 35720222 35480226 35280231 35140242
    35030265 34970292 34960328 35000357 35080380 35210466
    35290505 35670506 35870501 36210477 36750412 36990396=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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