ACUS11 KWNS 242046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242046=20
COZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242046Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated large hail and severe gusts
will be possible into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell is ongoing at 2045 UTC near the Las Animas
(Colorado) and Union (New Mexico) county line, with other
intensifying storms noted farther west across Huerfano County, CO.
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will continue to
support the potential for vigorous updrafts through the remainder of
the afternoon into early evening. The strongest deep-layer
flow/shear is expected to remain farther south across eastern NM and
west TX, but weekly veering wind profiles (as noted on the PUX VWP)
are supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for some
storm organization and at least transient supercell structures.=20

While the strongest supercells are expected to remain south of the
CO border, strong to potentially severe storms may continue to
develop near the higher terrain, with some left-splitting supercells
also potentially moving into southeast CO from northeast NM. Large
hail is likely to be the most prominent hazard, though localized
severe gusts will also be possible, especially if there are any
outflow mergers and modest upscale growth.=20

With the organized severe threat expected to remain relatively
localized over southeast CO, watch issuance is considered unlikely,
though this will be reevaluated depending on short-term
observational trends through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BpWX1LWLhp87mo8pP_vn9vn7nVgqu8bYgeNkeORL8eZ6cwqajOojGF5psKJtE1uL4EvsipF7= VRTnuwPPxztJDLL7Fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...

LAT...LON 37050380 37090479 37600498 38190491 38450455 38160308
37780275 37250264 37060286 37050380=20


=3D =3D =3D
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