ACUS11 KWNS 241943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241942=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0854
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the western
Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 241942Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve off of the
higher terrain and dryline this afternoon. Supercells capable of
large to very large hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also
possible. A Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation across the
southern High Plains, afternoon satellite imagery showed towering
cumulus and incipient thunderstorms developing along the higher
terrain of northeastern NM. As diurnal heating continues, subtle
forcing for ascent from the mid-level wave and upslope flow will
erode remaining inhibition and allow for robust thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints, along with
steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will support a broad plume
of moderate (1500-2500 J/kg) MLCAPE. While modest in the low-levels
owing to weak surface flow, RAP forecast hodographs are elongated in
the mid and upper levels supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt.
Weak forcing along the terrain and a diffuse dryline should allow
for relatively discrete storms to develop and organize into
splitting supercells through the afternoon.=20

As storms develop and track east/southeastward, steep mid-level
lapse rates, modest low-level shear, and a supercell mode will be
very favorable for large to very large hail initially. Weak
low-level flow should strengthen into the evening hours with the
development of the low-level jet. Some localized enhancement of
low-level shear is also possible along a remnant outflow boundary
across portions of the western TX Panhandle. Given the supercell
mode and expected discrete nature of storms, a couple of tornadoes
are possible. Experimental WOFS and Hi-res CAM guidance suggest
storm development will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours. Given
the potential for supercells within a favorable parameter space, a
Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7J-fVnlVG-z0u6iboPpzTchqDQ5n9MYyVh1BYAOqH4yjAsE-ac5eHm9oGD1mJXbNWQZJr14SD= _DPS7I7eoSXFmrhuJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36960268 36830228 36370212 32380254 32210260 32020277
31860309 32090351 36330463 36620466 36820458 36930429
36930401 36960268=20


=3D =3D =3D
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