• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 22 23:18:43 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 222318
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222318=20
    TXZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0842
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...much of northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 222318Z - 230115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist well into the evening, moving
    generally southeastward across northwest Texas. Both hail and severe
    gusts will be possible, and additional downstream counties may
    require a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Storms moving from the TX Panhandle into the South
    Plains are currently of mixed mode, and producing both severe hail
    and wind. A recent gust to 66 mph was measured in Crosby County, TX
    with a severe cell, and other cells in the vicinity may produce
    similar results. Other storms toward CDS are showing a linear mode,
    and this may eventually become the dominant type over the next few
    hours.

    Visible imagery shows a CU field extending downstream across
    northwest TX, as far east as Young and Stephens Counties, but
    generally north of San Angelo. This region has favorable theta-e
    with upper 50s F dewpoints and where temperatures peaked in the
    upper 80s F.

    Although only modest northwest flow aloft exists, it is favorably
    situated over moist southeasterly low-level winds, creating around
    35 kt effective shear. The current batch of storms will continue to
    interact, and possibly merge into an MCS over the next several
    hours. As this becomes more likely, areas downstream may need to be
    in a watch for damaging gusts and hail.

    ..Jewell.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Dc0KXhy80QKTt_eltgX4jQTVMoDaWkllinTvSHPw4niEXYjoggQRbk6CcdSXY-hDXxw3_spH= Baik6Y27YfJlJ-UeAM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32579875 32479895 32399967 32460051 32690098 33040133
    33390161 33840134 33990069 34350031 34229995 33829940
    33489886 33279855 32809859 32579875=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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