• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0841

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 22 22:59:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 222259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222258=20
    TXZ000-230000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0841
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0558 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222258Z - 230000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose risk of severe hail and
    gusty winds.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along and east of the dryline
    has been noted in the last hour across southwestern Texas. Shear
    orientation to the dryline supports cell movement off the boundary,
    though storm motions are slow around 10-15 kts. The hodograph from
    MAF is largely linear, supporting splitting cells. This trend has
    been noted on radar, with left splits moving northward faster at
    around 15-20 kts. Given steep lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, MLCAPE
    around 1000-1500 J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 30-40 kts,
    instances of large hail (isolated 2+ inches) will be possible.
    Additionally, a few severe gusts may be possible. Given the isolated
    nature of this threat, a watch is not likely to be needed.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KSggEsPvKY9mGKKVHTTR8lHHjvzn1Rr3Sq7uXGVL26fcsHKBeX9waxrdiA_5JE6pNIuh_VMj= -Nef5_Gw3QFrN1i91Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31580286 31920263 32340240 32580230 32870213 32920184
    32890144 32820113 32610098 32350103 32090125 31120145
    31040191 31040222 31120257 31320287 31580286=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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