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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 22 20:46:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 222046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222045=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-222215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the TX Panhandle...southwest OK...and
    western North Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

    Valid 222045Z - 222215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue this
    afternoon and into this evening. An initial threat for hail will
    likely transition more to damaging winds as cells cluster later this afternoon/evening.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
    scattered thunderstorms ongoing across portions of the TX Panhandle
    and far southwestern OK within WW231. Over the last couple of hours,
    storms have intensified with MRMS MESH showing cores supportive of
    hail in the 1-2" range. While storms have predominately been
    multi-cellular thus far, transient mid-level rotation has also been
    noted with area VADs showing effective shear of 25-30 kt. The mixed
    storm mode should continue this afternoon, with a threat for large
    hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Given the number of storms,
    cells should gradually merge into one or more southeastward-moving
    clusters as outflow consolidates, similar to what the latest HRRR
    data suggests. A locally greater threat for damaging winds may then
    evolve across portions of the southeastern Panhandle where
    consolidating storms and stronger outflow may support some severe
    gusts this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-yqXxL637HsLPLr3j3LhyPvmqeTGrlawoQYVNGR5CpanPhZHVZusV7t-fq3tOX76_-BaMdLWl= Zs3IAVerh5eNNYKRLY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 33510197 34100202 34310193 34590171 34640166 35310111
    35490105 35630091 35660060 35389981 35239949 34639934
    33749952 33469992 33280024 33060124 33200182 33510197=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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