ACUS11 KWNS 221818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221817=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-221945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
far western Oklahoma.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221817Z - 221945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in
proximity to a remnant MCV and surface trough this afternoon. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are possible. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1815 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
several area of agitated cumulus gradually deepening over the TX/OK
Panhandles in proximity to a remnant MCV and a weak surface pressure
trough. Early afternoon heating has removed most of the remnant
MLCINH across the region, with SPC mesoanalysis already showing
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE in place. As the air mass continues
to warm, heating and subtle convergence along the aforementioned
surface features should result in thunderstorm development by
19-20z.

Mid-level flow is somewhat enhanced to the south of the MCV across
the southern and eastern Panhandles. Backed low-level flow was also
aiding in locally elongating area hodographs. As storms develop this
afternoon, 30-35 kt of effective shear should support organized
multicells and a few supercells this afternoon. While not overly
steep, mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km along the eastern fringe of
the EML will be sufficient to support large hail, especially with
more sustained rotating storms. Steeper low-level lapse rates will
also favor damaging outflow gusts. Hi-res guidance suggests storms
may eventually consolidate into a forward-moving cluster with a
locally greater risk for damaging winds later this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed this afternoon to cover the
threat for large hail and damaging gusts.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6S6gBWTGNY1qYWUHNUMsPFvPkTxoQX5FAjg9Zk1IzV4lLKM3VDX249Bgs6zuiCQXoOhmh9yVU= gHbeWeaO4O7diqqKL0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36840039 36870121 36110159 34790185 33650189 33220157
33160035 33529985 33809965 35329972 36689995 36840039=20


=3D =3D =3D
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