ACUS11 KWNS 221737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221736=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-222000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221736Z - 222000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will be
possible into this afternoon. Watch issuance is currently considered
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across parts of
far western MT, immediately in advance of a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the interior Northwest. Downstream
instability is currently rather modest, but continued diurnal
heating will eventually support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg by early
this afternoon across a larger portion of western into central MT.=20

Ongoing convection already shows some signs of organization, and
this trend is expected to continue in the short term as stronger
deep-layer flow/shear spreads across an increasingly unstable
environment. A couple marginal supercells will be possible into
early afternoon, with an initial threat of isolated large hail and
localized severe gusts.=20

With time, outflow consolidation may favor some modest upscale
growth, which would favor some uptick in the severe wind threat.
However, the stronger mid/upper-level flow associated with the
approaching shortwave is forecast to move northeastward toward
northwest MT, while convection will tend to propagate with more of
an eastward component toward west-central MT. As a result,
uncertainty remains regarding the extent of storm organization with
time. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but this will
be reevaluated if any notable uptick in storm intensity and
organization is noted over the next 1-2 hours.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sW9KMHKaaHU-N5ZrPRTYY8W5rtCpvr8se_9RI6eiLUe8-NTwk2bdzv1rlkEnHjqG7fiACfHd= xcp4TyF0XrA_mJDb_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 47661344 48221317 48121149 47831115 47471083 46821100
46401137 46041207 45731274 45351391 45481421 45771421
46871375 47661344=20


=3D =3D =3D
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