• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0835

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 22 15:06:08 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221506
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221505=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0835
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1005 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/north FL...Southeast
    AL...Southern GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221505Z - 221730Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase into the afternoon.
    Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Strong storms have developed in multiple areas near the
    FL/GA border this morning, with one cluster noted northeast of
    Tallahassee, and a storm occasionally exhibiting marginal supercell characteristics north of Jacksonville. The 12Z TLH and JAX soundings
    both exhibited moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg),
    relatively cool midlevel temperatures (around -10 C at 500 mb), weak low/midlevel flow, and somewhat stronger upper-level flow above 500
    mb. This environment will generally persist through the morning into
    the afternoon, with some modest strengthening of effective shear
    possible as a low-amplitude, mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
    across the region. Storm coverage is expected to increase late this
    morning into this afternoon, with most 12Z CAM guidance suggesting
    the development of a southwestward-moving outflow that will focus
    initiation and perhaps briefly enhance effective shear for storms
    that can remain rooted to the boundary.=20

    Localized damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe hazard,
    especially if a larger-scale outflow/cold pool can develop with
    time. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear may be marginally sufficient for
    an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells as well. The
    magnitude of the overall severe threat is expected to remain too
    limited for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4s_LNoRtCAphVU3rjAdyFHDpZo2YBzMLsHElvrKmY-dR9MnTL7IuYp_LKWl2YC21G9DZmP7Yt= tV6ALtsq0dQgL9p_pI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 29318294 29298370 29498493 29948565 30228654 30278708
    30288744 31078754 31858709 31928628 31848551 30968250
    30918214 30858191 30838157 30238125 29738117 29408130
    29288225 29318294=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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