ACUS11 KWNS 221506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221505=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023
Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/north FL...Southeast
AL...Southern GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 221505Z - 221730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will increase into the afternoon.
Isolated damaging winds and perhaps some hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Strong storms have developed in multiple areas near the
FL/GA border this morning, with one cluster noted northeast of
Tallahassee, and a storm occasionally exhibiting marginal supercell characteristics north of Jacksonville. The 12Z TLH and JAX soundings
both exhibited moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg),
relatively cool midlevel temperatures (around -10 C at 500 mb), weak low/midlevel flow, and somewhat stronger upper-level flow above 500
mb. This environment will generally persist through the morning into
the afternoon, with some modest strengthening of effective shear
possible as a low-amplitude, mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the region. Storm coverage is expected to increase late this
morning into this afternoon, with most 12Z CAM guidance suggesting
the development of a southwestward-moving outflow that will focus
initiation and perhaps briefly enhance effective shear for storms
that can remain rooted to the boundary.=20
Localized damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe hazard,
especially if a larger-scale outflow/cold pool can develop with
time. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear may be marginally sufficient for
an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells as well. The
magnitude of the overall severe threat is expected to remain too
limited for watch issuance.
..Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4s_LNoRtCAphVU3rjAdyFHDpZo2YBzMLsHElvrKmY-dR9MnTL7IuYp_LKWl2YC21G9DZmP7Yt= tV6ALtsq0dQgL9p_pI$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 29318294 29298370 29498493 29948565 30228654 30278708
30288744 31078754 31858709 31928628 31848551 30968250
30918214 30858191 30838157 30238125 29738117 29408130
29288225 29318294=20
=3D =3D =3D
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