ACUS11 KWNS 201836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201835=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-202100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0828
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Sat May 20 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and western Alabama into
southeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201835Z - 202100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may evolve this afternoon
with a risk for a few damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail. Lower-end storm coverage and intensity suggest a weather watch
is likely not needed.

DISCUSSION...As of 1825 UTC, regional radar imagery showed isolated thunderstorms along and east of a slow-moving frontal zone and MCV
over MS and AL have slowly intensified over the last hour.
Additional incipient storm development was noted farther north into
portions of northwestern AL where deepening cumulus has been
observed via regional satellite. Ahead of these developing storms,
clear skies and warming temperatures have allowed moderate buoyancy
(1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop despite poor mid-level lapse
rates of 5.5-6 C/km. Mostly unidirectional flow observed via area
VWPs suggests relatively low potential for storm organization with
effective shear of 25-30 kt favoring multicells and perhaps a
transient supercell structure. Given the moderate buoyancy and some
potential for storm organization, isolated damaging wind gusts and
some marginally severe hail may be possible with the more persistent
storms. Given the rather nebulous forcing and lack of broader
organization a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JH8BPExA-URQ6bD4OT3CviquMPYV4rA3KuevA40XmjyMZWR3KvOyNMBjDypx7eduxf38tdg3= DZ9Rc1Fnyan11oaV08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32628910 33478806 33508803 34348724 34548681 34578677
34728623 34618579 34358558 33688542 33258545 32988554
32448583 31908631 31648681 31038765 30938812 30908874
31138969 31228977 31499014 31729026 32128983 32628910=20


=3D =3D =3D
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