• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0825

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 19 22:33:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 192233
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192233=20
    TXZ000-200030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0825
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...

    Valid 192233Z - 200030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 229 into the evening hours. Large hail and
    damaging gusts will be the primary threat with the stronger, longer
    lasting storms.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in
    convective coverage and intensity ahead of a southward-sagging cold
    front in southwestern into central TX, with several cells showing an
    increase in 50 dBZ values 25-45 kft in altitude. These storms
    continue in an environment characterized by deep low-level moisture
    and steep boundary layer lapse rates, contributing to 1000-2500 J/kg
    of thin MLCAPE (per 22z mesoanalysis). RAP forecast soundings
    suggest that roughly unidirectional vertical wind profiles with
    speed shear are supporting elongated hodographs, which are adequate
    for supporting multicells and splitting supercells that are in
    progress per evaluation of regional radars. These storms should
    continue to pose a large hail threat as well as damaging gusts
    (given the well-mixed boundary layer) into the evening hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-6C_Wh6bZhSlymj3prCKbALwbPKkYkXAtlKQFiFABlCWrAbHP4VbaNK3MBq1yiToS9UgBCg6L= tP_SjHVEN376YZFJq4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30940324 31610350 32410223 32380168 32340077 32369991
    32129918 31639848 31049821 30519848 29899903 29500021
    29420081 29570178 29840233 30240286 30940324=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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