• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0813

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 18 18:30:37 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 181830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181830=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0813
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

    Areas affected...the Front Range of the Rockies into northeastern
    Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181830Z - 182030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered, intensifying thunderstorm development near the
    Front Range may gradually consolidate into growing clusters of
    storms while spreading into the plains through 2-4 PM MDT. Stronger
    storms will pose primarily a risk for marginally severe hail and
    eventually gusts approaching severe limits. Due to the marginal
    nature of the severe threat, a watch is not anticipated, but trends
    will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...As broad, weak mid-level troughing slowly shifts across
    the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, thunderstorm development has been
    gradually increasing along the Front Range, from near Laramie into
    the Colorado Springs vicinity. Weak, moist easterly upslope flow is contributing to destabilization east of the higher terrain, with
    continuing insolation, and mixed-layer CAPE may now exceed 1000 J/kg
    in a corridor east of Fort Collins and Denver through Fort Morgan
    and Limon.

    Light westerly deep-layer mean ambient flow on the order of 10-15 kt
    will contribute to a slow eastward progression of storms off the
    higher terrain this afternoon. As this occurs, modest deep-layer
    shear (due to veering from the low-level easterlies with height) may
    be sufficient to contribute to short-lived supercell structures
    posing a risk for severe hail near/east of the urban corridor during
    the next few hours. Farther into the plains, convection probably
    will tend to grow upscale, accompanied by an increasing risk for
    strong surface gusts through 20-22Z.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FIXn4lIh0mdW5H9jDplVhPjbZ3XmmhCm8JJHzOj75jec2KsJeXuLr_GcaXDl2H_VEkE8ZTs4= nDgGgKcgMbXeVn5FZk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41490516 41150415 40540319 39380291 38530378 38780498
    40170505 41490516=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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