ACUS11 KWNS 151717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151716=20
MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0797
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri and adjacent areas of Arkansas...Oklahoma...and Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151716Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms will increase in coverage through
the afternoon across southwest Missouri. A mixture of discrete cells
and multicell clusters will pose a damaging wind and hail threat,
but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, several towering cumulus with
increasing lightning have been noted across the southern Ozarks and
along a warm frontal boundary across southern MO. As temperatures
climb into the upper 70s and low 80s, surface-based parcels are
reaching their convective temperatures with minimal SBCIN noted in
recent RAP forecast soundings/analyses. Consequently, additional
thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon across
the Ozarks and along the frontal zone. Recent analyses also depict
very weak shear over the region; however, upstream VWP observations
from KSRX sampled slightly augmented mid-level flow (around 20-25
knots) on the eastern periphery of the MCV. These winds are slowly
spreading northward and should influence the developing convection
over the next few hours. While deep-layer shear will still be weak
(around 25 knots), this may allow for transient storm organization.

Reflectivity and velocity data reflects this idea with a few cells
near the AR/MO displaying very weak mid-level rotation. Other
convection across the region has displayed weak mid-level
convergence signatures, suggesting downburst wind potential. Given
low-level lapse rates approaching 7-8 C/km, damaging winds appear
probable with the strongest cells, and a few instances of marginally
severe hail are possible as the stronger mid-level flow overspreads
the region. Gradual clustering along the surface warm front should
foster upscale growth and perhaps a more higher, more localized,
damaging wind threat late this afternoon.

..Moore/Leitman.. 05/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zlmyMCTzzSPLHv1Y-VYqF3kePfLSCa1uCR0iWkZTtNxBsL4uXA1P0e6ybVIc_7C-cXR5W6CP= 6uBf12WcT7smtwp-Fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36269427 36419492 36719537 37149548 37469535 37829496
38199428 38299349 38239213 38119141 37999066 37749011
37178967 36658957 36168971 35939020 36019107 36149186
36189353 36269427=20


=3D =3D =3D
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