ACUS11 KWNS 141744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141743=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...northern into eastern Missouri and southwest
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141743Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop over northern Missouri, and
may pose a damaging wind and marginal hail threat as they progress east/southeastward toward the Mississippi River and into western
Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows towering cumulus and deepening
convection now over northern MO, near a weak boundary. This boundary
becomes less defines farther east into IL, but a minor differential
heating zone does exist.

While winds aloft are not very strong, heating and ample moisture
will continue to destabilize the region. Conditions appear favorable
for a cluster of storms to form near the stronger part of the front
over northern MO, and hodographs will favor and east/southeastward
storm motion. Given the favorable time of day with steepening
low-level lapse rates and precipitable water near 1.50", at least
isolated severe gust potential appears likely, with marginal hail in
some of the stronger cores as well.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8fjz_Ogr2QEgjQEiqkDa1PTBKRXEDYJVYWixF2c0TJg8NQ5b4yYrtlWZYWrJ55Qm_UDRORKgY= l2XEqKnV9uYCbUWecE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON 39199353 39439369 39719362 39979306 40119254 39919093
38978922 38498902 38218906 37798931 37798967 38399110
38759201 38949266 39099327 39199353=20


=3D =3D =3D
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