• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0750

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 10 00:12:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 100012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100012=20
    NCZ000-100115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0750
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central and southern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...

    Valid 100012Z - 100115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail
    may continue for a couple more hours this evening. Storms have
    generally weakened and this trend should continue as they approach
    the southern end of WW206.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last 30-60 minutes, ongoing storms across
    parts of WW206 have shown a general weakening trend as reflectivity
    and radar echo tops have slowly decreased. As they continue to track southeastward over the next couple of hours, they will continue to
    encounter a partially convectively overturned air mass from previous
    storms. This, along with recent hi-res guidance suggests the
    weakening trend will likely continue this evening. Despite the
    trend, ongoing storms retain a few stronger cores within 500-1000
    J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30 kt of effective shear. While best
    environment is likely stabilizing with the loss of heating this
    evening, these storms may continue to pose an isolated severe risk
    for wind and hail through the next couple of hours. Given the
    decreasing severe risk with time, a follow on weather watch is not
    expected.

    ..Lyons.. 05/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5e0Q-sfG-iemSjY96eflUPod9jTgSqhsMCvPG-6M3TJfMznJ-jY2BfCPlqLB0aX_8nh9T2djC= q99hMh_ZiiOLJEMFbI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34837798 35087820 35177829 35327829 35467825 35587807
    35727777 35937732 35727657 35617626 35287573 35197556
    35197556 34687626 34527646 34527711 34707772 34837798=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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