• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0744

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 9 20:28:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092028
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092027=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-092200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0744
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0327 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

    Areas affected...East-central CO into west-central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092027Z - 092200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible into early evening,
    with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. Watch
    issuance is possible later this afternoon, depending on trends
    regarding expected storm coverage.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell that is likely producing hail is ongoing at
    2015 UTC across Rush County, KS, with other cumulus noted along a
    slow-moving surface boundary from west-central KS into east-central
    CO. Strong surface heating and modest low-level moisture is
    supporting MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg near/north of the boundary
    across western KS, with more modest buoyancy into east-central CO.=20

    Large-scale ascent is nebulous at best across the region, but
    continued heating/mixing and modest convergence along the surface
    boundary may support additional isolated storm development later
    this afternoon. Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but low-level east/southeasterly flow north of the boundary is supporting
    effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for organized convection,
    including the potential for an additional supercell or two. Isolated
    hail and severe gusts are expected to be the primary threats into
    early evening. The need for a watch in this area remains uncertain,
    but watch issuance is possible later this afternoon depending on the
    trends regarding expected storm coverage.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_FdS0QATKADBL1jTzJ67z31dA_hmdxq0NQcM2cDMbhuu9apzLWJZTmyGVyS4jU_8EoeMzeS9= RHoK0rRdwV5XI_ATms$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38979973 38819922 37699943 38050078 38230137 38460204
    38980320 39290384 39560374 39620291 39590190 39470109
    38979973=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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