• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0740

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 9 17:37:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 091736
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091736=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0740
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1236 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 091736Z - 091930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 19Z
    across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

    DISCUSSION...A stationary front is present from central Virginia to
    far northeast North Carolina early this afternoon. This front
    separates an airmass with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and
    dewpoints in the low 60s to the south from temperatures in the 70s
    and dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 to the north. This front
    will start to surge south through the day as a mid-level shortwave
    trough moves through the region and high pressure builds into the
    Great Lakes. As it does, expect some thunderstorm development along
    the front. Initially these storms will form in relatively weak
    buoyancy, but eventually will move into greater instability in
    east-central North Carolina where mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
    move inland with MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This moderate to
    strong instability, combined with effective shear around 35 knots
    will support supercell structures with a threat for large hail and
    damaging winds. Given the cloud-layer shear, cannot rule out some
    hail approaching 1.75" to 2" diameter with the strongest supercells
    near maturity, especially as they move into east-central North
    Carolina where the greatest instability is anticipated.=20=20

    A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19Z.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9joNhQ-veK-K11wyN0qPSvlHSB23HLEmhd5XqAiZWgk6eeNVeGsz-US9FIctRBcEobyzUeue1= ZymOETug8aCJW3nHFU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

    LAT...LON 34517662 34487721 34157770 33817791 33787802 33887821
    34487898 34877921 35587926 36547917 37057889 37317830
    37027765 36567706 35787572 35267545 35187544 34647632
    34517662=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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