• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0727

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 8 07:07:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 080707
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080707=20
    MOZ000-ILZ000-080900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0727
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0207 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023

    Areas affected...much of central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201...

    Valid 080707Z - 080900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 201
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm activity will continue to
    overspread the Lower Missouri Valley through 5-7 AM CDT, accompanied
    by a lingering risk for occasional, localized damaging wind gusts.=20
    Due to the relatively marginal nature of the severe threat, a new
    severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger lingering thunderstorm activity, comprising
    the large cluster of storms, now appears mostly rooted above both
    prior and recently produced convective outflow. Models indicate
    that the supporting mid-level short wave will continue an eastward
    or east-northeastward progression across Iowa/northern Missouri,
    into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois through daybreak.=20
    However, stronger low-level forcing associated with warm advection,
    and the more moist elevated southerly inflow, appear likely to lag a
    bit to the south and southwest, where mid-level cooling
    overspreading the Interstate 70 into Interstate 44 corridor may
    maintain the strongest renewed convective development through
    10-12Z.=20=20

    Given thermodynamic profiles with initially steep mid-level lapse
    rates and sizable temperature/dew point spreads, some of this
    activity may be accompanied by occasional, locally strong surface
    gusts. Otherwise, generally weak ambient lower/mid-tropospheric
    flow (on the order of 20-30 kt) and a relatively stable
    surface-based layer may continue to limit a more
    substantive/widespread risk for damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 05/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8FbQL_25Ef3VyyWlz3rb7y2qbvHx2VXt5HyynNxGqvH-onbvnUj1asasZpBNhtBzTBGAa47LA= aV94ICxwscrIoMTQjQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38869394 38989323 39319246 39779186 38789034 37829221
    37989346 38869394=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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