• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 7 07:21:36 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 070721
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070721=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-070915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0701
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

    Areas affected...areas northwest through southeast of I-70 corridor
    of eastern Illinois and western Indiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

    Valid 070721Z - 070915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Further thunderstorm intensification and upscale growth,
    accompanied by increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts,
    remains possible during the next few hours. An additional severe
    weather watch may be needed within an hour or so.

    DISCUSSION...Given the easterly forward propagation of the small
    lead convective system, and south to southwesterly ambient flow
    beneath a 30-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet, southerly system
    relative inflow currently appears strongest near the
    Illinois/Indiana state border area. Although this inflow remains
    generally drier/more stable to the east of the state border, the
    Rapid Refresh suggests that low-level moisture advection may
    continue to gradually destabilize the inflow across the state border
    area, ahead of the southwestern flank of the convective system,
    during the next few hours.=20=20

    As a result, stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to
    redevelop east-southeastward, and generally remain southwest of the Indianapolis area. However, there does appear at least some
    potential for substantive further intensification, accompanied by
    strengthening northwesterly rear inflow and downdrafts, and
    eventually a risk for strong surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 05/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!50kcixwaK0HiWUCLtVnm32McFxdiuE_yq2cF5nKI7zjX-dawMk4kdN3Fo1SU3aABJtwDFdlor= 6PIhiGujL0vJHto90c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39698876 39638767 39888728 39648596 38968664 39088832
    39698876=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)