• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun May 7 01:13:03 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 070112
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070112=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-070245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0812 PM CDT Sat May 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri...southeastern Iowa
    and western Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 070112Z - 070245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Upscale growth of ongoing storms in MO and IA will likely
    continue into an east/southeastward moving MCS tonight. Damaging
    winds, hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. One or more
    downstream weather watches is likely needed this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of northern MO and southeastern IA,
    convective trends have shown an increase in storm mergers and
    upscale growth over the last hour. Likely in response to an
    increasing low-level jet evident on area VAD/VWPs, this trend is
    expected to continue this evening. Hi-res guidance is in agreement
    showing continued upscale growth of the ongoing convective clusters
    into an east/southeastward moving MCS in the next couple of hours.
    Ahead of these storms, sufficient buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE) along a modified outflow boundary should support strong
    updrafts. 40-50 kt of bulk shear should also be favorable for storm organization/longevity. Storms should progress east/southeastward
    along the buoyancy gradient into northeastern MO, southeastern IA
    and western IL. Given the favorable buoyancy/shear, an organized MCS
    capable of all hazards should evolve tonight. Downstream weather
    watches will likely be needed.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4a6bnLT-49Q4kMHtLYlboHKvueCCTLvc1MigF6xZO3VUgYGvGTbuxX1nUZgph1lMTIsiVFB5j= 5BZVLbYifw7qINesvA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40578895 39628888 39198910 39078976 39289114 39509222
    39699237 39849239 40149233 41319218 41389132 41349034
    41288971 41178933 40968913 40578895=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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