• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0659

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 29 18:19:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 291818
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291818=20
    FLZ000-292015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0659
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023

    Areas affected...Lake Okeechobee vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 291818Z - 292015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to intensify and a few may become
    supercells. The magnitude and coverage of severe is uncertain.=20
    Convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows developing
    thunderstorms over the northern part of the Everglades north to west
    of Lake Okeechobee. The airmass is very moist with mid 70s
    dewpoints and mid-upper 80s surface temperatures. Modified RAP
    forecast soundings show around 3500 J/kg MLCAPE over the southern
    and central parts of the FL Peninsula. As a mid-level low over the
    Arklatex and associated trough continue east-southeast across the
    northern Gulf Coast and western Gulf, low to mid-level flow is
    forecast to gradually strengthen through the early evening. The
    kinematic and buoyancy profiles indicate a few of the stronger
    updrafts will probably acquire at least some rotation (i.e.,
    supercellular) and pose at least an isolated risk for large hail.=20
    Isolated damaging gusts may also occur. Given the moist low levels,
    a tornado cannot be ruled out but would be strongly dependent on an
    established supercell maximizing its ability to augment/enhance
    low-level shear for low-level mesocyclones.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 04/29/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!95kminAK_JRiWBUFLrep4sppf71GJf7-FW1o2f4VpPAnq1krv4Lcx5WznvlBHU-KN-PtGWY4X= zdGH5B5xueNexP9cR4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27978129 26898140 26388120 26228092 26378057 27318019
    28078051 28128093 27978129=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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