• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0641

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 27 20:51:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 272051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272050=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-272245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0641
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

    Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...east-central Arkansas...far
    southwest Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 272050Z - 272245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms may develop near the shortwave trough in
    Arkansas and ahead of the cold front in Mississippi. Large hail and
    isolated damaging winds are the primary threats. A watch may be
    needed should convective trends warrant.

    DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis shows increasing boundary-layer destabilization from east-central Arkansas into northern
    Mississippi. As clouds have dissipated through the day, low-levels
    have recovered to some degree. Visible satellite indicates
    increasing cumulus across central Mississippi. Closer to the
    upper-level trough in Arkansas, additional convection has also
    recently developed. Shear should increase as the upper trough moves
    east. Effective shear of 45-60 kts will favor organized storms. Long
    hodographs and cold mid-level temperatures (around -14 to -17 C)
    suggest large hail potential. Damaging wind gusts may also occur,
    but low-level lapse rates should keep that threat more isolated. The
    highest confidence in storm development/persistence will be near the
    shortwave trough. It is less certain how many storms will form in central/northern Mississippi, but those storms would have more
    potential for large hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible
    watch.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QpoEAwlOk19hayBNCSQPguThdcEq_Oy2ZCLcqZShnlHWcmPc7hCbCm53jV2iTilbva0yap2r= BPo-F7caC_6BlgdVmc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34789268 35169140 35279040 34968938 34368816 33508806
    33108832 33018942 33629096 33979206 34109252 34789268=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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