• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0621

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 26 14:43:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 261443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261443=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-261645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0621
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0943 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

    Areas affected...north TX...far southern OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 261443Z - 261645Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Gradual storm intensification is expected through late
    morning across the Red River Valley. Timing for an eventual tornado
    watch across much of north TX is a bit uncertain (~11am-2pm).=20
    Marginally severe hail/localized gusts are the primary threats
    through 12pm.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of sub-severe
    thunderstorms straddling the Red River near Wichita Falls. This
    activity is located both near outflow/a composite front draped over
    western north TX and extending into the TX South Plains and in the
    northern portion of a warm frontal zone. Surface temperatures
    during the mid morning range from the lower 50s near the Red River
    to near 60 deg F in the Metroplex. Richer low-level moisture is
    located farther south near Waco where mid 60s surface dewpoints
    currently reside.=20=20

    Visible satellite imagery shows extensive stratus across central
    into north TX. Stronger heating will be considerably hindered
    except for areas west of the Metroplex along I-20 where it appears
    gravity waves are at least acting to partially disturb the stratus
    near Abilene. It is within this corridor near Abilene where a moist
    axis is evident in surface observations and cloud streets are noted
    in the stratocumulus field, that greater potential instability will
    reside through the early afternoon. Although surface heating will
    be limited, gradual theta-e advection in the low levels beneath cool
    mid-level temperatures will combine to lead to destabilizing airmass
    across north TX. As a result, moderate buoyancy via elevated
    parcels (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop through
    midday across near the Metroplex. A gradual uptick in storm
    intensity may occur through late morning and a possible marginally
    severe hail/localized gust risk could materialize.

    ..Smith/Gleason.. 04/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7v4HE3MXs00HZQRJU4RiQ6fTIigzQZgKPfFCuSi-d3OVhALY1ErodVXgNNjv3h_m8UzyFnUui= 8CYuiAzyPf_oqJg1Xo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33969635 33709624 33259634 33069670 33009765 32599839
    32729903 33039926 33289896 33479879 33789867 33789790
    34019788 34099759 33969635=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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