Trump wants peace in the Middle East in the run-up to the US midterm elections in November. He hoped that the 60-day memorandum would ensure this. In my opinion, the underlying rationale was simple: give Iran as many concessions as possible on paper. Promise more than you ultimately intend to deliver, if necessary, as long as temporary calm is established towards November and energy prices remain low.

However, that strategy failed. Trump regularly seems to struggle to keep confidential information to himself and suggested himself that the memorandum was primarily a tactical move. Consequently, Iran lost confidence that the agreements were meant seriously.

The result was that the hardliners in Iran felt emboldened. They could once again point to their position that the United States is not a reliable negotiating partner. That seems to have further strengthened their position within Iran. In my view, this has been a major diplomatic blunder on Washington's part. Subsequently, Iran stated that it wants more control over the Strait of Hormuz, although the legal status of this international sea route is much more complex than a unilateral claim.

The situation escalated further when Trump indicated this week that the United States intended to impose a 20% tariff. This led to significant unrest in the region.

I suspect that intense talks with Washington subsequently took place from the Gulf States. It is quite possible that it was made clear there that further escalation would be unacceptable and could have consequences for the American presence in the region.

It was striking that Trump withdrew his proposal within just 24 hours. That is exceptional, as he rarely backtracks on a publicly adopted position so quickly. This suggests that the resistance to his plan was considerable.

The pressure on Trump thus appears to be increasing further. In my view, this also increases the risk that the United States will be drawn into new escalations. When a government is under heavy political pressure, there is always the danger that attention will be shifted to an external conflict. Trump himself is therefore even speculating about other potential hotspots, such as Cuba. Time will tell whether that is realistic, but international tensions are undeniably rising.

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