SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP40
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 7, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week (September 29
through October 5), as expected with the solar cycle progressing
toward a probable peak in summer 2025.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 105.1 to 111.4, and
average daily 10.7 cm solar flux from 138.4 to 149.2.

Compare this to a year ago, when average daily sunspot number was
just 59.4 and solar flux was 89.8.

This last week there were two new sunspot groups on September 30,
one more on October 1, three on October 3, and one more on Thursday,
October 6.

I have been noticing improved 10 meter propagation with openings
lasting all day, now that the autumnal equinox passed two weeks ago
and with higher sunspot numbers.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 7, 154 on October 8 and 9,
then 152 and 150 on October 10 and 11, 148 on October 12 to 14, 130
on October 15, 135 on October 16 and 17, 140 on October 18, 145 on
October 19 to 21, 150 on October 22 and 23, then 145, 140 and 135 on
October 24 to 26, 145 on October 27 and 28, 150 on October 29, 155
on October 30 and 31, 145 on November 1, 135 on November 2 to 4, 130
on November 5 and 6, 135 on November 7, 140 on November 8 and 9, 130
on November 10 and 11 and 135 on November 12 and 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10, 12 and 8 on October 7 to 10,
5 on October 11 to 13, 8 on October 14, 10 on October 15 and 16,
then 8 on October 17 to 19, 12 on October 20 and 21, 8 on October 22
to 29, then 20, 12 and 10 on October 30 through November 1, then 8
on November 2 to 10 and 10 on November 11 and 12.

On October 2, Spaceweather.com announced "A Big Dangerous Sunspot",
AR3112, one of the biggest in years had just rotated over the sun's
eastern horizon. They predict this could produce two weeks of high
solar activity.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH reports, "A week ago it seemed that following
conditions would be calmer. This assumption was shattered after
AR3112 sunspot group, with its complex magnetic structure, began to
appear on the northeastern edge of the solar disk.

Prior to that, we expected the earth to be hit by a fast solar wind
from a CME that left the sun on September 28, but only a slight
increase in geomagnetic activity followed on September 28 and
October 2.

However, we did get an X1 flare on October 2 at 2025 UTC, which
ironically did not originate from the large dangerous AR3112 group,
but from the smaller and apparently less threatening AR3110 active
region. It amplified the SWF (shortwave fade out) in the Pacific
and parts of North America. Apparently, it blasted a CME into
space.

This development was followed by the introduction of AR3112 with
over a dozen dark nuclei scattered over 130,000 km of the solar
disk.

It remained the case that most of the incoming CMEs were hurled into
space by the AR3110 group of spots, in which we observed a series of
strong flares (M5.9, M8.7, X1) over the weekend.

As a result, several CMEs headed towards Earth.

However, the geomagnetic field was only steady to active in the
following days.

Not only does the chance for energetic flares in the AR3112 region
persist, but on October 4, a 200,000 km long magnetic filament
erupted in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. The plasma clouds
are not heading directly towards Earth, but some could hit on 8
October."

Big filament.

https://bit.ly/3fOl4KC

https://bit.ly/3ejTEeZ

The latest from WX6SWW, Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov.

https://youtu.be/MFOsaEV4CME

https://youtu.be/ZVSO0grZ5ek

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for September 29 through October 5, 2022 were 56,
74, 100, 102, 144, 153, and 151, with a mean of 111.4. 10.7 cm flux
was 137.2, 137.1, 147.9, 153.9, 155.1, 152.4, and 161, with a mean
of 149.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 13, 3, 12, 24, 16,
and 14, with a mean of 12.7. Middle latitude A index was 7, 12, 2,
9, 16, 13, and 11, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP41
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 14, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
149.2 to 155.3.

A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
is better than predicted.

October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day
Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .

Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
the first week in November at 160.

The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
November 18-22.

With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
ends.

"Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
magnetosphere calm down.

"The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
smaller AR3116.

"All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

"Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
propagation.

"We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
be replaced by an increase later in October."

John, W2QL wrote:

"I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
UTC, -18 dB.

"My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
to be F2.

"10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
Kansas.

"Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

"Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
car."

Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
aurora:

https://bit.ly/3CQEveO

Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
cannot kill it.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP42
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 21, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity took quite a plunge over this reporting week
(October 13-19). Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 114.9
to 57.3, while equivalent solar flux values went from 155.3 to
119.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average planetary A
index going from 13.3 to 10.6, and middle latitude A index from 10.4
to 8.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on October 13, two more on October 15,
another on October 16, one more on October 17, another on October 19
and one more on October 20.

I should note that the middle latitude A index for October 18-19 are
my own estimates. The Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetometer was
offline for a 24 hour period spanning both days.

The Wednesday forecast of solar flux shows a peak at 160 during the
first week in November.

Predicted daily flux values are 115 on October 21-22, 120 on October
23-27, 130 on October 28, 155 on October 29-30, 152 on October 31,
160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135 on November 9-11, 130 on
November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on November 15-17, and 140
on November 18-21, 145 on November 22-23, 150 on November 24, 155 on
November 25-26, then 160 from the end of November through the first
week in December.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 21-23, 12 on October 24,
15 on October 25-26, then 12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on
October 31 through November 1, then 18, 15, 12, 20, and 8 on
November 2-6, 5 on November 7-9, 18 on November 10-11, then 15 and 8
on November 12-13, 5 on November 14-15, 12 on November 16-17, 8 on
November 18, and 5 on November 19-21, then 15, 12, 15, 12 and 20 on
November 22-26, 15 on November 27-28, and 18 on November 29.

Despite lower solar activity, worldwide 10 meter propagation seems
strong this week, probably boosted by seasonal variations as we head
deeper into the Fall season.

Jon Jones, N0JK (EM28, Kansas) reports from last week:

"A strong several hour F2 opening took place on 6 Meters October 14,
2022. Stations in northern South America and the Caribbean were
strong to the southeast states, Midwest, and eastern Seaboard.

"From eastern Kansas, I logged HC2DR and PJ4MM on 6 Meters via FT8
around 1950 UTC. I was running about 50 watts and a quarter wave
whip on my car 'fixed mobile.'"

"Signals were strong.

"The Solar Flux was 141, K index 4."

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity gradually decreased as active regions fell behind
the northwestern limb of the solar disk.

"Earth's magnetic field was active to disturbed around October 15,
when our planet was moving in a rapid stream of solar wind. A minor
G1-class geomagnetic storm was registered on October 15.

"In the following days, solar activity remained low, and the simple
sunspot configuration indicated a low probability of flares.

"It is only in a few days, after the coronal hole in the southeast
of the solar disk crosses the central meridian, that the solar wind
speed and the probability of geomagnetic disturbances will increase
again.

"We can expect a more pronounced increase in solar activity and more
frequent opening of the shortest shortwave bands again, especially
from the last days of October onward."

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/4hmsd_FMWH4

Angel Santana, WP3GW on October 17 wrote:

"For a month now I've heard (and seen) much activity on 10 meters
more than on any other band on weekends with countries that I've not
heard for a while. On past weeks, have worked 7X, C3, and V51MA
which is very active.

"You can even hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz.

"This past Sunday took time to work some stations from I, EA, T7,
and ON. Then after 1730 UTC began calling on 28.550 MHz and work 22
stations including PA, I, F, CX, W, CE, PY, EA8, and LU. All good
signals. Plus, heard DL for the Work All Germany contest.

"Some EA stations are heard well into the 2100 UTC which is like
11pm their local time.

"So, give it a try, this contest season looks very interesting, you
may call this the 'Rise of Ten.'"

Angel added that with his Yaesu FTDX10 he can see the activity
across 10 meters.

Bob, KB1DK writes:

"I have been using the MUF map from the KC2G website since it was
mentioned by N4KZ in your September 16th bulletin. It is very
accurate and is now my go-to source to know what is actually
happening propagation wise before I turn on the rig.

"The auto refresh MUF map reflects the actual and changing band
conditions. The map has been consistently 'spot on' during my first
month of use. I highly recommend the website.

"Over the past three weeks, both 10 and 12 meter SSB have been great
from my Connecticut QTH. I worked many newcomers to 12 meters who
were impressed with both the propagation and the minimal QRM.

"The first two weeks in October was very busy on 10 meters. Weekends
were like a contest, with solid activity between 28.300 and 28.600
Signals were quite strong and many stations were heard here for
several hours straight. While I was able to make SSB contacts to
Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Australia, I was not able to make contact
with Japan. The signals from Japan were readable and they were
working stations from the west coast."

The site is, https://prop.kc2g.com .

A new photo of a solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3MMAbRb

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 13 through 19, 2022 were 57, 51, 50, 59,
84, 50, and 50, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 130, 120.5,
115.1, 119.2, 125.6, 113.9, and 113.2, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 18, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 5, with
a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 16, 15, 11, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 10.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot activity seems listless. Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at the end of the bulletin concerning
last week's averages) while solar flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.

On Thursday, the day after the reporting week ended, the sunspot
number was 72, over 13 points above the previous 7 day average.
Perhaps this is a promising sign.

The middle latitude geomagnetic numbers this week are wrong. See
what I mean:

https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB

I emailed a contact at NOAA about this, and here is the reply:

"Mid lat numbers are absolutely NOT correct.

"Fredericksburg magnetometer is undergoing maintenance this week and
has been flaky. I've alerted the individual acting in my absence as
well as our developers to see if we can get that cleaned up."

So, the middle latitude numbers presented here at the end of the
bulletin are my own very rough estimates, trying to correlate with
the high latitude and planetary numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
the data from the Boulder magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
the Fredericksburg data, and he noted that my estimates were not far
off.

Here is what he sent me:

A index (Boulder) 7, 4, 22, 13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1

Average daily planetary A index went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux is 125 on October 28 to November 3, 112 on
November 4-5, 118 on November 6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
November 26, then 105 on November 27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
November 30 through December 2, and 118 on December 3-6.

The rise in solar flux in the first week in November to 160
presented in the previous two bulletins is gone from the current
prediction. But this Thursday solar flux forecast is more optimistic
for the near term than the Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
October 28 through November 3, 5 on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
on November 10-12, 5 on November 13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
November 18-21, 5 on November 22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
through December 6.

From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Not much happened on the Sun over the past few days from the point
of view of a terrestrial observer. Overall activity was low. Of
note, the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
field on October 22, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm and
bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

"Earth's magnetic field calmed down and active sunspot regions began
to sink beyond the southwestern edge of the solar disk, while others
emerged in the northeast.

"Although helioseismic maps revealed interesting activity on the
Sun's far side, this will likely end before it emerges on the
eastern edge of the solar disk."

Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers, Florida wrote:

"I wish I had sent this earlier. I worked Japan twice lately on 10
meters from Southwest Florida. Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
October 18th (JA1KIH) using an indoor dipole above the garage at 14
feet. Both were weak but 100% copy. They both reported the same for
my signal. These contacts were CW, and I run 500 watts."

10 meters has been much better lately, and for Scott, working
stations in Japan is more difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
have always had a pipeline to Japan. His path length is about 7,000
miles, while mine is only about 5000 miles, and I recall during past
sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ running barefoot into a low dipole
produced huge pileups of JA signals.

My own 10 meter CW beacon (K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
more reports lately. A couple of listeners even mailed QSL cards.

Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip that led me to a news item about a
gamma ray burst.

Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com and using the archives feature in
the upper right corner, go to October 18 to read about the October 9
gamma ray burst, and the amateur astronomer who detected it using an
unusual VLF antenna.

This burst of energy happened 2.4 billion years ago and took that
long to reach us.

Here is what stage Earth was in at that time:

https://bit.ly/3znjztv

More info on the event:

https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi

Here is a link to Darrel's own data, labeled Agua Caliente:

https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU

Did you know there is crowd sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
phones? You can participate:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data

Here is a Forbes article on doomsday flares:

https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy

Some tabloid news on flares:

https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL

Something even worse than a Carrington Event?

https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR

In last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
were wrong.

The correct averages for the numbers at the end of the bulletin in
ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6 and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
flux, planetary A index and middle latitude A index respectively.
The wrong numbers were actually from the previous week.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 20 through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
46, 72, and 78, with a mean of 58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and 122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 5, 27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
10.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 4, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity perked up this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 58.4 to 70.3, and solar flux averages increased from 113.3
to 129.9.

There are still problems with the Fredericksburg magnetometer, so I
used numbers from the Boulder, Colorado magnetometer for the middle
latitude A index.

At 2318 UTC on November 3, 2022 the Australian Space Weather
Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"Increased geomagnetic activity expected due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream from November 4-5."

Planetary A index averages went from 19.4 to 13.7, and middle
latitude numbers changed from 9.1 to 14.3.

The solar flux prediction shows the highest values over the next
week, starting with 130 on November 4, then 135 on November 5-6,
then 130, 135, 130, and 125 on November 7-10, 115 on November 11-12,
112 on November 13-14, 110 on November 15, 108 on November 16-18,
104 on November 19, 100 on November 20-23, 98 on November 24-25,
then 100, 105, 105 and 110 on November 26-29, then 112 on November
30 through December 2, then 118 on December 3-6, 115 on December
7-9, and 112 on December 10-11.

Predicted planetary A index is 22. 30, 15, and 8 on November 4-7, 5
on November 8-10, then 18 and 15 on November 11-12, 5 on November
13-17, then 25, 15 and 8 on November 18-20, 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 15 and 25 on November 23-25, 15 on November 26-27, then 18,
12, 10, 12, 20 and 15 on November 28 through December 3, then 5 on
December 4-6, 18 on December 7-8, 15 on December 9, and 5 on
December 10-14, and 25 on December 15.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"The evolution of solar activity, the Earth's magnetic field and the
state of the ionosphere in recent days has been varied, but not easy
to describe in a concise way (which is my aim).

"The reason for this is the variability of the evolution and the
absence of energetically significant phenomena.

"A week ago, there were five quiet sunspot groups on the Sun. None
of them posed a threat of strong flares. All had stable magnetic
fields that did not look like they would result in an eruption.

"Then, on the far side of the Sun, a sunspot appeared so large that
it changed the way the Sun vibrated.

"Helioseismic maps revealed its acoustic echo several days beyond
the Sun's northeastern edge. What mattered to us was that it was
about to appear at the northeastern limb of the Sun's disk.

"On October 26, we were delighted to see the Solar Dynamics
Observatory (SOD) satellite, which is in geostationary orbit,
studying the Sun's influence on planet Earth and the surrounding
universe.

"Most important for the forecast is the SDO/AIA image of coronal
holes, which may alert us to the possibility of an ionospheric
disturbance. We were cheered up by the fact that the Sun looks like
a jolly smiley face or a Halloween pumpkin, seen on
https://bit.ly/3fB1VvQ, just days before Halloween!

"A cheerful image, created by coronal holes in the Sun's atmosphere,
but mainly spewing a triple stream of solar wind toward Earth.

"Solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft indicated that a
small, unexpected CME may have impacted Earth's magnetic field on
October 28 around 1400 UTC. A G1-class geomagnetic storm followed
after midnight UTC on October 29 after Earth entered the solar wind
stream flowing from the merry hole in the solar atmosphere.

"(The DSCOVR spacecraft is the Deep Space Climate Observatory. See https://bit.ly/3E2yWKV )

"Further, there were only four sunspots on the Sun, all of which had
stable magnetic fields that were unlikely to explode.

"Another flare took place on November 1 on the far side of the Sun.
The eruption hurled a CME into space. The blast site will flip to
the Earth side of the Sun in about a week.

"Watch for a larger coronal hole that has since moved to the Sun's
western hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms may result on
November 5, when a solar wind stream is expected to hit Earth's
magnetic field. Which will definitely affect shortwave propagation
conditions. Ideally, and with appropriate timing (daytime, ideally
afternoon), a significant improvement in the positive phase of the
disturbance could follow."

Oleh, KD7WPJ of San Diego, California reported: "On November 1st I
worked 3 Japanese stations on 10 m CW at 2238-2248 UTC from
Dictionary Hill (SOTA W6/SC-366) in San Diego, CA. I used 40 watts
and a homemade vertical with 4 radials."

Solar blasts in the news:

https://bit.ly/3NxbY1v

A Jack-o-Lantern Sun:

https://www.popsci.com/science/nasa-smile-sun/

News about radio blackouts!

https://bit.ly/3fzEi6W

A smiley Sun:

https://bit.ly/3UmMRRd

New videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/gO0wP6eiS8I

Part 3 of her mini-course:

https://youtu.be/-X-zE44x5Fk

This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest, in which you work
domestic stations, and unlike ARRL Field Day, you do get multipliers
for sections worked. See https://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for
details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2, 2022 were 72, 87,
97, 68, 56, 63, and 49, with a mean of 70.3. 10.7 cm flux was 129.7,
129.3, 133.9, 130.5, 127.9, 128.1, and 129.7, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 16, 26, 12, 11, 8, and 14,
with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 24, 14, 12,
6, and 11, with a mean of 12.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 14, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, November 11, so this
bulletin is delayed until Monday, but edited and updated Sunday
night.

Two new sunspots appeared November 1, one more November 3, two more
November 4, one more and then another on November 6 and 7, another
on November 9 and again on November 10, and one more on November 13.
But sunspot numbers and solar flux seem modest lately, and so are
the solar flux forecasts.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week, from 70.3 to 78.9, yet
somehow the solar flux averages stayed the same, 129.9 and 129.9.
Our reporting week is Thursday through Wednesday, and in the four
days since, the average rose to 137.9.

Average daily planetary A index went from 13.7 to 13.4, but the
middle latitude numbers changed from 14.3 to 9.6.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on November 14-15, 120 and 110 on
November 16-17, 105 on November 18-19, then 110, 114, 112 and 114
on November 20-23, 116 on November 24-26, 118 on November 27-28,
then 120, 122, 125, 124 and 122 on November 29 through December 3,
130 on December 4-5, then 125 and 120 on December 6-7, 115 on
December 8-9, then 120, 118, 116, 115 and 114 on December 10-14, 116
on December 15-16, 114 on December 17-18, then 112 and 114 on
December 19-20, and 116 on December 21-23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 14, 10 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-19, 15 on November 20, 5 on November 21-22,
then 8, 16, 26, 15 and 12 on November 23-27, then 8, 15, 26, 16 and
12 on November 28 through December 2, then 8 on December 3-4, 12 on
December 5-8, 8 on December 9, then 5 on December 10-14, then 25, 15
and 8 on December 15-17, 5 on December 18-19, then 8, 26 and 15 on
December 20-22.

Angel Santana, WP3GW, wrote:

"10 meters is getting so better, that today on November 9 at 1319
UTC had a contact with 3B9FR on 28.522 MHz up 5. He even answered me
in Spanish."

That is Rodrigues Island, in the Indian Ocean, more than 9000 miles
from Puerto Rico.

More on Rodrigues Island:

https://bbc.in/3El5MGS

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/tkpwp_oUMnQ

Solar flares and radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3EkBFzu

https://bit.ly/3hkvke8

Paul, K2PMD, asked:

"I am a relatively new ham, so please forgive me if this is a dumb
question. Generally speaking, I understand that a high K index makes
radio communication more difficult. Why is the K index not included
in the weekly propagation report?"

My response:

"The reason is, there are too many of them. Instead, geomagnetic
indicators are summarized using the A index.

"If we listed all the K indices for both middle-latitude and
planetary, there would be 112 numbers to report.

"K index is quasi-logarithmic, while A index is linear.

"The A index for any day is calculated from the 8 daily K indices.

"https://bit.ly/3zLPLXW

"I've been using this resource more and more lately, when I want to
check for possible geomagnetic disturbances in real time:

"https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

"Notice that the numbers are fractional, and it is easy to spot
trends in real time. K index is always expressed in whole numbers,
but because these are planetary numbers from many magnetometers, you
get a finer resolution."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 3 through 9, 2022 were 65, 81, 82, 78,
80, 85, and 81, with a mean of 78.8. 10.7 cm flux was 125.3, 117.7,
131.1, 130.8, 134.6, 132.3, and 137.6, with a mean of 129.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 26, 16, 10, 4, 19, 12, and 7,
with a mean of 13.4. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 8, 3, 12,
8, and 8, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 18, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

At 0334 UTC on November 18, the Australian Space Weather Forecast
Centre issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"A moderately large coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective
location by 19-Nov. Combined with possible weak glancing interaction
of recent CMEs, geomagnetic activity is expected in the coming days.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH
SPEED WIND STREAM FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2022."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux did not seem to correlate this week.
Flux rose, while spots fell.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 79.8 to 72.3, but average
solar flux rose from 129.9 to 137.2.

This suggests the number and area of sunspots was less, but the 10.7
cm radiation from those spots increased.

A new sunspot emerged on November 10, another on November 13, and
two more on November 16, the last day of our reporting week, which
runs Thursday through the following Wednesday. Another sunspot group
emerged the next day on November 17.

How is this sunspot cycle progressing? One year ago, in our bulletin
average daily sunspot number was only 36.4, solar flux was 89.1, so
if the latest activity seems a bit lackluster, we can see the cycle
making steady progress. Solar Cycle 25 is expected to peak around
July 2025, about 32 months from now.

So why do we care about these numbers? We get better HF propagation
at higher frequencies when x-rays from the Sun are more intense, and
they correlate with sunspot numbers and the 10.7 cm radiation. This
radiation charges the ionosphere, increasing density.

Back in 1957-59 at the peak of Solar Cycle 19 the radiation was so
intense that (I've been told) 10 meters was open worldwide, around
the clock. Solar Cycle 19 had by far the highest sunspot count in
recorded history, with nothing like it before or since.

Here is the prediction for solar flux, from Thursday which has lower
short term numbers than the Wednesday forecast presented in the ARRL
Letter.

Expect 118 on November 18-21, 120, 122 and 122 November 22-24, 115
on November 25-26, then 120 and 125 on November 27-28, 130 on
November 29-30, 135 on December 1-12, 120 and 110 on December 13-14,
then 105 on December 15-18, 110 on December 19, and 115 on December
20-23, then back to 135 before the New Year.

Predicted planetary A index, which gives us a clue to possible
geomagnetic unrest, is 10, 18, 28, 12 and 8 on November 18-22, 5 on
November 23-24, then 15, 18, 12 and 8 on November 25-28, 5 on
November 29-30, then 12, 18 and 8 on December 1-3, 5 on December
4-7, 8 on December 8-9, 5 on December 10-11, 10 on December 12-13, 5
on December 14-16, 15 on December 17, then 18 on December 18-19, and
5, 8, 15, 18, 12 and 8 on December 20-25.

Coming up is the annual ARRL 10 Meter Contest, over the weekend of
December 10-11. Expect better propagation than we saw in 2020 and
2021. Although predicted solar flux is not particularly high, the
prediction above shows the highest solar flux (135) over that
weekend, and planetary A index at a low value of 5, indicating
predicted geomagnetic stability. But of course, things may change.

The comment above about Solar Cycle 19 in the ARRL Letter brought
this response, from a ham who was there, and just in time for
Friday's bulletin.

Roger, K6LMN in Los Angeles, California wrote:

"10 meters SSB and the beacons most days are very good. South
America comes as if over a coax cable terminating here in Los
Angeles. But I need 6 more countries worked/confirmed on 10M SSB to
make 150.

"Also please wake up the 'magic band' 6m because I need a few more
grids on 6M SSB to make 425 confirmed.

"Solar Cycle 24 was OK on 6M and I'm hoping 6M goes wide open this
Solar Cycle 25, after all I am 84 years old and probably this is my
last solar cycle.

"I need more Euro stations and am sorely lacking on the Middle East
and parts of Africa. I cannot compete with you East Coasters.
Namibia was coming in the other day, but the Midwest and east
coasters fought it out. No luck so I gave up. Ah, but I get even
with you easterners since the Pacific area is a piece of cake here
in Los Angeles.

"About Solar Cycle 19. I was a teenager when licensed in 1955 as a
Novice. I heard stations from all over the world on HF and 6M. I
hurried up and got my Tech license and then my General a few years
later.

"HF and 6M stations were coming in 24/7 from all over the world. I
only had 90 watts and a dipole, all on AM, but WOW the stuff I
worked and heard was just incredible. Mostly peaking around
1956-1957!"

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past two weeks, several active regions crossed the solar
disk, the most significant was the trio of AR3140, AR3141 and
AR3145, which crossed the central meridian on November 10-11.

"Most attention was drawn to the magnetically complex and almost
daily flare-producing AR3141, which allowed a smaller version of
itself to grow in its northwestern part. The result (see
https://bit.ly/3Askfyi ) reminded fans of 'Hitchhiker's Guide to the
Galaxy President Zaphod Beeblebrox.'

"The solar flux has not dropped below 130 sfu since November 5,
while the Earth's magnetic field has been quiet since November 9.
The result has been a relatively long period of above-average
shortwave propagation conditions.

"Beginning November 17, we expected an increase in geomagnetic
activity as a consequence of, among other things, the CME of
November 14. However, there will likely be a delay of a day or two
from the original forecast. Therefore, if the disturbance begins on
November 18 or 19, preferably during the daylight hours, there may
be further improvement in conditions, and deterioration in the next
phase of the disturbance."

ARRL SSB Sweepstakes is this weekend. Even if you are not a serious
contest operator, it is easy and fun to give out fresh contacts to
stations on the air, especially toward the end of the event when
participants are eager for new, fresh stations.

A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xLkS3-xp5jM

Here is a video that makes it appear there is a Sun serpent:

https://bit.ly/3hVOLKR

Thanks to reader David Moore for the following online stories on
solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3V6jinh

https://bit.ly/3V0isIY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16, 2022 were 79, 57, 65,
74, 77, 69, and 85, with a mean of 72.3. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7,
137.6, 138.2, 137, 141.5, 134.2, and 132.9, with a mean of 137.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 9, 5, 7, 4, 2, and 2, with a
mean of 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 3, 6, 3, 2, and 2,
with a mean of 3.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL headquarters was closed for the holiday last Thursday and
Friday, so this bulletin is delayed until Monday, but has fresh
content from Sunday night.

At 2228 UTC on November 27 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A coronal hole
wind stream is expected to induce G1 periods of geomagnetic activity
from mid 30-Nov to 01-Dec."

Solar activity softened over the past reporting week, November
17-23. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 72.3 to 66, and
average daily solar flux from 137.2 to 116.5.

In the four days since the end of the reporting week the average
daily solar flux sunk to 106. But we look forward to rising solar
flux, peaking at 135 on December 12 and again on January 8.

In 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 the average daily
sunspot number was only 30.9, and solar flux was 80.8, so we can see
Solar Cycle 25 is progressing nicely.

Average daily planetary A index rose slightly from 4.4 to 5.1, and
middle latitude numbers declined from 3.9 to 3.4.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on November 16, one more on November
17 and another on November 18. Two more appeared, the first on
November 21 and the second on November 23. No new sunspots appeared
in the following four days. The peak sunspot number was 83 on
November 21.

Predicted solar flux is 105 and 110 on November 28-29, 115 on
November 30 through December 3, 120 on December 4, 125 on December
5-10, then 130, 135 and 130 on December 11-13, 125 on December
14-17, 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-24, and 120 on
December 25-31, then 125 on January 1-6, 2023 then 130 and 135 on
January 7-8.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 15 and 18 on November 28-30, then
10, 18 and 10 on December 1-3, 5 on December 4-7, 8 on December 8-9,
5 on December 10-16, then 10, 26, 15 and 8 on December 17-20, then
10, 15, 8 and 10 on December 21-24, 8 on December 25-27, then 12, 18
and 8 on December 28-30, and 5 on December 31 through January 3,
2023, then 8 on January 4-5.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote on November 24:

"Over the past seven days, I have been reminded again of the Woody
Allen quote, 'If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your
plans.'

"At first, the authors of the forecasts of the Earth's magnetic
field activity (including Tomas Bayer of the Budkov Geomagnetic
Observatory) predicted an increase to the level of a disturbance on
November 17. After that, most of the authors already agreed on
November 19. In the following days, the forecasts were pushed
forward, finally to 21-22 November. And was there anything? Nothing!

"Solar activity dropped slightly. The geomagnetic field was quiet
except for November 18 and 21. The development of shortwave
propagation was erratic, but not bad, with improvements on November
17, 19 and 24.

"For forecasting, we can sometimes use observations obtained using a
technique called helioseismology. Its map of the Sun's far side on
November 22nd showed a huge active region. The corresponding
heliographic longitude will appear at the eastern limb of the solar
disk in about 10 days. After that, we expect an increase in activity
and, of course, an improvement in shortwave propagation."

Occasionally I see a solar report in overseas tabloids that makes me
laugh out loud, or LOL as they say.

Here is one. I love the part that says our Sun is the largest star
in our solar system. No kidding! Normal solar activity becomes an
existential threat.

https://bit.ly/3EK9R6o

That was published on November 25, and no doomsday yet.

More dire warnings from the same source:

https://bit.ly/3uc0uYd

This one is pretty deep, but is about real science:

https://bit.ly/3ODAKxs

I haven't seen a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, but you
can check our Space Weather Woman's YouTube videos at https://www.youtube.com/user/SpWxfx .

Jon Jones, N0JK writes from Kansas:

"There was an extensive and unexpected sporadic-E opening November
19 early in the morning. I noted stations on Es about an hour after
local sunrise here in Kansas.

"I logged stations in W3 and W4 on 6 Meters on FT8. Signals were
good at times, the opening lasted here until about 1700 UTC.

"Sunspot AR3150 produced a M1-class solar flare at 1256 UTC. A
strong pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's
upper atmosphere. The sporadic-E appeared around 30 minutes later.
Perhaps this helped spark the Es? This has been the only significant
sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz so far in November, 2022.

"The opening was fortuitous. Larry Lambert, N0LL was operating
portable from rare grid DN90. He made many 6 meter contacts on
sporadic-E.

"The ARRL Phone Sweepstakes was on and sporadic-E may have helped
contestants make contacts on 20, 15 and 10 meters.

"Today (November 27, 2022) I got on 10 meters Sunday afternoon of
the CQ World Wide DX CW contest. Stations in Hawaii were very loud
at 2240 UTC. I logged 4 Hawaiians in 6 minutes running just 5 watts
and a magnet mount whip on a BBQ grill. 10 can be amazing at times."

N0JK writes the monthly VHF column, "The World Above 50 MHz" in QST.

Danny, K7SS reported on the Western Washington DX Club email
reflector that he worked single band 15 meters in the CQ World Wide
DX CW contest. "Great to have 15 open again. Not quite at its peak,
and never had a good opening to EU, except for OH, SM, and LA over
the top both days.

"Most EU worked scatter path to the E/SE. Thank goodness for Asia
action! Lots of JA, BY, and YB folks."

Danny lives in Seattle, where I live, and we have always had an
amazing pipeline to Japan.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 17 through 23, 2022 were 64, 55, 59,
72, 83, 61, and 68, with a mean of 66. 10.7 cm flux was 119.2, 116,
115.1, 119.1, 117, 115.7, and 113.3, with a mean of 116.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 7, 5, 6, 10, 3, and 3, with a mean of
5.1. Middle latitude A index was 1, 5, 4, 3, 8, 2, and 1, with a
mean of 3.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 2, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

No new sunspots appeared over the past reporting week, November 24
to 30. But sunspots were visible every day. Then on December 1
three new sunspot groups emerged. The sunspot number rose from 12
to 49 and the total sunspot area went from 10 to 330.

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined during this reporting week
(November 24 to 30), with average daily Sunspot number dropping from
66 to 46, and average daily solar flux from 116.5 to 108.3.

Solar wind streams from coronal holes kept geomagnetic indicators
active, with average daily planetary A index jumping from 5.1 to
18.6, and middle latitude A index from 3.4 to 14.

On Wednesday, November 30 the magnetometer at Fairbanks, Alaska
showed the college A index at 54, the highest value over the past
month. No doubt this produced aurora. The next day the disturbance
continued, with collage A index at 51. These are very large
numbers.

The current prediction from Thursday night has solar flux reaching a
peak of 130 this weekend, rather than 135 recently predicted. This
is much earlier than the prediction in yesterday's ARRL Letter. We
might also see solar flux below 100 around December 24.

Look for flux values of 120 and 124 on December 2 and 3, 130 on
December 4 and 5, 125 on December 6 and 7, then 120, 125, 125, 130,
115 and 110 on December 8 to 13, 105 on December 14 to 17, 100 on
December 18 to 23, then 95, 105 and 110 on December 24 to 26, 115 on
December 27 to 30, and 120 on December 31, then 125 on January 1 to
6, 2023.

The planetary A index prediction is 20, 10, 18 and 12 on December 2
to 5, 5 on December 6 and 7, 10 and 8 on December 8 and 9, 5 on
December 10 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
then 20, 15, 12, and 10 on December 22 to 25, then 15, 18, 10, 18
and 10 on December 26 to 30, 5 on December 31 through January 3,
2023, 8 on January 4 and 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12.

OK1HH wrote:

"The course of solar and geomagnetic activity and therefore the
course of shortwave propagation in the last seven days differed
significantly from the week before.

The solar wind speed has increased significantly (from 300 km/s to a fluctuation between 700 and 800 km/s) and the activity of Earth's
magnetic field mostly increased.

The changes began on 25 November at 0230 UTC when a shock wave in
the solar wind hit the Earth. In the ionosphere we could first
observe an increase in MUF. Further development of the disturbance
continued only by further irregular deterioration of shortwave
propagation.

Enhanced solar flaring activity, including Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs), did give rise to predictions of higher geomagnetic activity,
but without the possibility of more precise timing.

On December 1, a new larger sunspot group appeared over the
southeastern limb of the Sun. So solar activity will not drop, but
will probably rise again over the next few days.

Shortwave propagation should therefore no longer deteriorate, rather
the shortest shortwave bands will gradually open up a little better.
In the northern hemisphere of the Earth, however, the opening
intervals will be shorter than in recent weeks."

Research: "Iterative Construction of the Optimal Sunspot-Number
Series"

https://bit.ly/3VLbTtX

This one is spreading fast, all about hams in Montana on PBS:

https://www.montanapbs.org/programs/ham/

Thanks to K7SS and N7SO for the above.

Solar wind news:

https://bit.ly/3EVkeUW

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30, 2022 were 61, 55, 60,
56, 52, 25, and 12, with a mean of 46. 10.7 cm flux was 109.7,
108.5, 107.1, 107.2, 107, 107.9, and 111, with a mean of 108.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 20, 16, 15, 24, 25, and 24,
with a mean of 18.6. Middle latitude A index was 6, 15, 12, 10, 18,
20, and 17, with a mean of 14.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 9, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity bounced back in our reporting week, December 1 to 7.
With solar flux and sunspot numbers dramatically higher and
geomagnetic activity lower, what could be better? Well, even more
sunspots, I guess. But this sunspot cycle is already progressing
better than the prediction consensus, so I am grateful.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 46 to 85, while average
daily solar flux rose from 108.3 to 137.5.

How do these numbers compare with a year ago? The week of December
2 to 8, 2021 had an average daily sunspot number of 24.6 and solar
flux at 82.6.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 18.6 to 14.4, while
middle latitude numbers declined from 14 to 9.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next few days is 140 on December 9 to
11, then 130, and 125 on December 12 and 13, 120 on December 14 and
15, 110 on December 16 to 19, 115 on December 20 to 22, 120 on
December 23 to 28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29 to 31, then
140 on January 1 to 6, 2023, then 135 on January 8, 125 on January 9
and 10, 115 on January 11, and 110 on January 12 to 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on December 9 and 10, 5 on
December 11 to 16, 10 on December 17 and 18, 5 on December 19 to 21,
then 20, 15 and 12 on December 22 to 24, 20 on December 25 to 28,
then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on December 29 through January 1, 2023, then
5, 12, 15 and 8 on January 2 to 5, and 5 on January 6 to 12, then 10
on January 13 and 14, and 5 on January 15 to 17.

Don't forget the ARRL 10 meter contest this weekend.

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter

In North America, that starts on Friday evening, and the latest
prediction shows a promising high solar flux with low geomagnetic
numbers, ideal conditions.

F.K Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"This week, no dramatic events - no large proton eruptions, and the fluctuations of the solar wind did not deviate from the limits we
have become accustomed to this year. The most prominent feature was
the canyon-shaped coronal hole, which paraded from the eastern to
the western half of the solar disk.

But its surroundings were changing, especially at its northern end.
From there, the HSS (high-speed solar wind) probably began to flow
from there on December 7th, reaching Earth and finally triggering a
geomagnetic disturbance on the afternoon of the same day.

Before the aforementioned coronal hole sinks behind the western edge
of the solar disk in a few days, we can still expect an increase in
the activity of the Earth's magnetic field and irregular changes in
the ionosphere.

Don't expect more accurate predictions.

A decrease in solar activity will follow, and the decrease in solar
radiation will add up in the ionosphere to the shortening of the
day. Only with a delay of several days will propagation improve in
the longer part of the short wave band."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW wrote:

"On Wednesday, December 7, 2022, between 1429 and 1432 UTC I
received the United Kingdom, G9PUC in grid square JO00au calling CQ
using digital mode FT8 on the experimental 8-meter (40 MHz) band via
F2 propagation. Distance was 3541 miles, with an azimuth of 050
degrees.

The 8-meter experimental band is within the worldwide Industrial-Scientific-Medical (ISM) segment between 40.66-40.7 MHz
with a 40 kHz bandwidth, center frequency on 40.680. Licensed users
are the Fixed, Mobile and Earth exploration- satellite service.

G9PUV resides in Iford, England and has an Innovation Trial
license from Ofcom to conduct research on 8 meters for 12 months,
starting April 1, 2022.

Paul uses an Icom IC-706 rig into a W4KMA Log Periodic antenna
(custom 18-100 MHz) at 49 feet AGL at 30 watts.

The noon 10.7cm Radio Flux was 148 sfu. The Estimated Planetary K
index (3 hour data) 12-15 UTC ramped up to a Kp index of 5.

I was using the JTDX v2.2.149-32A suite. The Band Activity window
displayed the following eight decodes.

142915 -14 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
142945 -5 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143015 -4 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143045 -10 0.3 526 CQ G9PUV JO00
143115 -6 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
143145 -9 0.3 525 CQ G9PUV JO00
143215 -16 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00
143245 -11 0.3 524 CQ G9PUV JO00

Less than one hour later, I decoded Ireland, EI2IP in grid square
IO52 calling CQ using digital mode FT8 via F2. He decoded
twenty-two times.

Distance was 3151 miles, with an azimuth of 050 degrees.

EI2IP resides in Limerick, Ireland. (EI) radio amateurs are
authorized to transmit on this band without a Test Trial license
from ComReg.

The Band Activity window displayed the following decodes.

152300 -14 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152600 -18 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152630 -13 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152700 -19 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152730 -12 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152800 -22 0.4 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
152830 -14 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152900 -11 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
152930 -15 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
153000 -21 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153530 -15 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153600 -18 0.5 1464 CQ EI2IP IO52
153630 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153700 -19 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153800 -14 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153830 -13 0.4 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153900 -20 0.6 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
153930 -18 0.6 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
154000 -16 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
154030 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52
154100 -16 0.5 1467 CQ EI2IP IO52
155700 -20 0.5 1465 CQ EI2IP IO52"

Thanks to Howard, N7SO for this link:

https://www.youtube.com/SVAstronomyLectures

Solar physics:

https://bit.ly/3Ybi38y

Dr. Tamitha Skov's tutorial on the ionosphere, 2 years ago:

https://youtu.be/zUXBeYHTsUk

WX6SWW Current video:

https://youtu.be/eAbskTOybvE

Newsweek sunspot report:

https://bit.ly/3BlnPuS

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7, 2022 were 49, 66, 68, 93,
89, 123, and 107, with a mean of 85. 10.7 cm flux was 118.7, 124,
133.8, 143,7, 149.8, 144.2, and 148, with a mean of 137.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 28, 16, 10, 17, 8, 4, and 18, with a mean
of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 18, 11, 7, 10, 7, 2, and 9,
with a mean of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 16, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

Heightened sunspot activity over the past week no doubt produced the
great conditions during last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter contest.

Compared to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
jumped from 85 to 136.9, while solar flux averages increased from
137.5 to 150.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index decreasing
from 14.4 to 7.7, and middle latitude A index from 9.1 to 6.

Higher sunspot numbers and lower geomagnetic indicators is an ideal
combination for favorable HF propagation.

New sunspots appeared every day except December 12, with one new
sunspot on December 8, another on December 9, and three more on
December 10, another on December 13 and one more on December 14.

N0JK commented on the ARRL 10 Meter contest:

"What a difference a year makes. 10 was wide open this year for the
ARRL 10M contest with strong single hop F2 from Kansas to both
coasts. Europe and Japan in, and I completed WAC (Worked All
Continents). Operated fixed mobile with 1/4 wave whip. Solar flux
this year was 148, last year only 78."

The latest prediction from the USAF via NOAA shows solar flux at
164, 162, 160, 158, 154, 152 and 150 on December 16-22, then 120 on
December 23-28, then 125, 130 and 135 on December 29-31, 145 on
January 1-8, 2023, then 140, 130, 125 and 120 on January 9-12, and
115 on January 13-18, then 120 on January 19-24.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-17, 10 on December
18, 8 on December 19-20, then 12, 8, and 15 on December 21-23, 20 on
December 24-28, then 12, 10, 12, 8, 5 and 18 on December 29 through
January 3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, 8 on January 6, 5 on January
7-14, 10 on January 15-16, then 5, 20, 15 and 12 on January 17-20,
and 20 on January 21-24.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Evolving solar activity was erratic over the last seven days,
starting with the Earth entering a high-speed solar wind stream (up
to 600 km/s) on 8 December.

"It came from a canyon-shaped coronal hole that approached the
western limb of the solar disk. The day after, a magnetic filament
erupted in the Sun's southern hemisphere, but the CME was weak.

"We expected a slight increase in solar wind speed around December
12. However, not only did this not occur, but the solar wind slowed
to 350 km/s in the following days. At the same time, the Earth's
magnetic field calmed down.

"On 12 December, nine groups of sunspots were observed on the Sun,
the largest number so far in the 25th Solar Cycle. Two days later
there were eleven sunspot groups.

"Of these, two regions (AR 3163 and 3165, both with the Beta-Gamma
magnetic configuration) had moderately strong flares (the strongest
on 14 December at 1442 UT was M6 class, produced the Dellinger
effect up to a frequency of 15 MHz). The ejected CMEs have missed
the Earth for now, and we can expect a possible hit from AR3163. The
increase in solar radiation caused an increase in MUF and therefore
the shortest shortwave bands opened up regularly.

"Decrease in solar activity, increasing geomagnetic activity and
worsening of short wave disturbances can be expected after December
20."

The Dellinger Effect is an SID, or "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance."

https://bit.ly/3HCHytO

David Moore shares this about our Sun's middle corona:

https://bit.ly/3hvZX0O

Nine new sunspots. I do not agree that they are dangerous:

https://bit.ly/3FuPniB

Interesting speculation. What happens to cryptocurrency during a
Carrington event?

https://bit.ly/3BEYtrR

Newsweek reports on the terminator event:

https://bit.ly/3YtyAF3

More and more news about flares:

https://bit.ly/3W3Vhyc

https://bit.ly/3HG0XtK

https://bit.ly/3WpcD8k

Another Solar Cycle 19?

https://bit.ly/3FYgioi

N0JK reports:

"Some sporadic-E to W1 from Kansas December 15. Logged K1SIX FN43."

More 6 meter news from KM0T:

"Well, it took since 1999, but I finally worked my first ZL. In
fact, 8 of them. Opening lasted on and off here for about an hour.
Started hearing them just after 0000 UTC. EN40s were working them
first for about 10 minutes before, which tipped me off. I Then
worked AA7A in Arizona at +25, so there was a link perhaps to TEP F2
hop.

"There was one station calling an FO, but never saw any report of
the monitoring FO station showing up on PSK reporter. FO was on the
exact path to ZL, but I don't think there was a hop there, perhaps a
blind caller to FO. If anyone actually heard them or worked them,
let us know as that would be an interesting path.

"My antennas were as low to the ground as they could be due to the
ice storm. Bottom antenna about 25 feet. (Stacked 6el over 6el,
20' apart)

"Now that I think about it, flux was 151 and SSN 148.

"I'm pretty sure it was E-skip link, just like when I worked Chatham
Island here some months ago.

The SW had all kinds of storms (as the whole USA did). I heard snow
and rain and 'thunder snow' in Arizona.

"That would make sense of such a strong E-skip link to the SW. With
the flux only at 151, seems to me this is a good number for TEP if
you're in the right spot, but not enough to make it to the upper
Midwest with true F2.

"I was lucky that our area had ice only in the morning. It rained
pretty much all day with bouts of ice, but by the time evening came
around, my ice was off the antennas.

"Signals were strong actually. I gave -01 to -17 reports on the ZLs.
+25 and just below given to stateside 7-land stations I worked in
between the ZLs.

"First ZL was at 0003 - ZL3NW with -11 sig - I got a -07 report.
Strongest ZL was at 0033 - ZL3JT with a -01 sig. He gave me a +00.

"Last ZL was ZL1AKW, where the spotlight moved a bit north. At 0107
UTC - he had -06 sig and I got a -19 report."

He did not mention a mode but judging from the signal reports it was
probably FT8 or FT4.

W2ZDP reported on December 14:

"There was a great 6 meter opening yesterday. I first noticed it
around 2020Z and worked 12 stations in grid 'EM,' all on FT8.

"I also noticed that a few of them were working ZLs although I
didn't see the response. After the local 2 meter net at 7 PM local
time, I again worked a few stations in 'EM' when I started seeing
both sides of ZLs working stateside stations. After several
attempts, I finally worked ZL1RS at 0100Z from FM04. Not too bad for
100 watts and a 4 element beam at 30 feet!"

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, the Space Weather Woman, has an
informative new video:

https://youtu.be/i0QbCZZpYRY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14, 2022 were 115, 116, 111,
141, 142, 159, and 174, with a mean of 136.9. 10.7 cm flux was 143,
149.1, 141.7, 147,7, 150.8, 153, and 164.7, with a mean of 150.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 11, 8, 10, 6, 4, and 4, with
a mean of 7.7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 9, 6, 7, 5, 3, and 3,
with a mean of 6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP51
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 23, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

I am writing this first draft of my penultimate bulletin of 2022,
about seven hours after the start of Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, which was on Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 2147 UTC.
It is very cold in Seattle, about 17 degrees F on the longest night
of the year.

Solar activity was down a bit from the previous week, although it
was one of those odd occasions when average daily sunspot numbers
and solar flux changed in opposite directions.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 136.9 to 124.1, while
solar flux rose from 150 to 153.8.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 17, one more on December
19, another on December 21, and two more on December 22.

Geomagnetic indicators were a bit lower, with average planetary A
index changing from 7.7 to 6.7, and middle latitude numbers from 6
to 5.1.

Due to missing data, I had to fudge one of the numbers, the December
16 middle latitude A index which I pegged at 7 by eyeballing trends.

Predicted solar flux appears to reach a short term peak of 160 on
January 4-7, 2023, which may repeat on the last day of January and
the first few days in February.

The forecast shows 130 on December 23-25, 135 on December 26–30,
138 on December 31, then 140, 150 and 155 on January 1-3, 2023, 160
on January 4-7, then 158, 156, 154, 154 and 152 on January 8-12, 150
on January 13-15, then 145, 130 and 120 on January 16-18, 118 on
January 19-20, then 120, 125 and 127 on January 21-23, 130 on
January 24-25, then 135, 138, 140, 150 and 155 on January 26, and
160 on January 31 through the first few days of February.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 8 on December 23-25, 5 on
December 26-29, 10 and 12 on December 30-31, then 8, 5 and 18 on
January 1-3, 2023, 10 on January 4-5, then 8, 10 and 6 on January
6-8, 5 on January 9-14, then 12, 10 and 20 on January 15-17, then
12, 8, 5 and 18 on January 18-21, and 20 on January 22-24, then 12,
10, 12, 8 and 5 on January 25-29.

OK1HH writes:

"Over the past seven days, we observed up to seven sunspot groups on
the solar disk, three in succession had sizes and configurations
suggesting the possibility of an M-class flare.

"AR3165 fell behind the western limb on December 17, while we
observed AR3169 the same day. The largest AR3163 went over the limb
on December 22. Solar activity, both total and flare activity,
slowly decreased.

"A shock wave (probably the CME released by sunspot AR3165 last
week) hit Earth's magnetic field late on December 18, but a
geomagnetic storm did not develop, only a slight increase in
geomagnetic activity. This was repeated on December 21 and
especially the next day, when it was a recurrent disturbance,
repeated after about 27 days.

"Solar activity is likely to remain low until Christmas. The
situation may change next week, when one or more active sunspot
groups will appear on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

"Shortwave propagation was mostly above average with slightly
elevated MUF values. Diurnal variations were erratic. This pattern
will continue."

Jon, N0JK wrote:

"A strong sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
Sunday December 18.

"I logged K3FM EM50, WA3GWK EM60, W5THT EM50, and N4UPX EM50 on
50.313 MHz FT8 around 1600 UTC with strong signals. My station was
100 watts and an attic dipole."

More big solar flare news:

https://bit.ly/3YHi5Wf

https://bit.ly/3PKXts4

https://bit.ly/3HXk1DW

https://bit.ly/3FPgipw

Found this interesting resource in the ARRL Letter:

https://haarp.gi.alaska.edu/diagnostic-suite

From Dr. Tony Phillips on cycles:

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/12/

On Thursday using remotehamradio.com I made a 10 meter contact with
Ralph, VE3LOE. He sent me an email, which I have edited:

"About 2 years ago I was in touch with Scott McIntosh at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO, who made a minority-opinion propagation forecast for Solar Cycle 25 which
suggests much higher solar activity than what his colleagues
predict. See 'Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot
Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude' (text dated October
2020).

"The latest installment, entitled 'Deciphering Solar Magnetic
Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021,' which is at:

"https://arxiv.org/a/mcintosh_s_1.html

"I scanned this latter paper just now. Although I am a retired
engineer from the telecom sector with a PhD in statistical traffic
analysis of pre-Internet data networks, and understand the
statistical math used in these papers, I am not a propagation
expert. However, in the last publication, Figure 10 predicts a mean
SSN just under 200, higher than other expert predictions. This
present cycle has been interesting in its statistical variability.

"I am primarily a 10m enthusiast and use this band on a daily basis,
generally in the 1300-1700 UTC timeframe when the EU openings take
place. For some of my other ham interests and operating conditions
you can visit my QRZ.com page."

K7RA notes - download this pdf:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.10577.pdf

A new report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 15 through 21, 2022 were 140, 108, 139,
128, 132, 119, and 103, with a mean of 124.1. 10.7 cm flux was
165.9, 163.1, 154.6, 155,6, 152.4, 146.4, and 138.7, with a mean of
153.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 3, 4, 11, 6, and 9,
with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 4, 7, 2, 2, 9, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 5.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 30, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and
rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped
from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average
planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers
from 5.1 to 12.6.

Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160 January
1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,
136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January
15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and
132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and
140 on January 31 through February 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022
through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10
on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January
17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January
23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10
on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,
perhaps until mid-February.

The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our
solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to
New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon
readings from this source:

https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1

Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings
were posted after Christmas Eve.

Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion
Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on
holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.

From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January
05, 2023.

"Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3
Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5
Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5
Minor storm: Jan 3-4
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

"We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the
coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic
activity enhancement again with a possible active event.

"The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4
in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.

"Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
generally."

From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.

"A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would
remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had
relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major
flares.

At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days
continued until 27 December, with highly variable and
difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.
Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.

"From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.
Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the
western edge of the solar disk.

"The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament
explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the
slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day
period) of December.

"According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class
geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic
field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We
expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher
latitudes again.

"Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the
far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their
heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.
Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."

Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential
threats.

https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ

Unusual solar events:

https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0

Big 2022 solar news:

https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022

A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space
Weather Woman:

https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk

Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day
is Straight Key Night:

http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,
107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,
127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,
with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,
16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP01
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 6, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Two new sunspot groups emerged on December 29, one more on December
30 and another on January 1, then two more on January 5.

Solar activity was a little higher, with average daily sunspot
number rising from 96.1 to 97, and solar flux averages rose 14
points to 157.8.

On Thursday, January 5 the sunspot number rose to 103, above the
average of 96.1 over the previous seven days.

Predicted solar flux is 154 on January 6, 152 on January 7-8, 150 on
January 9, 148 on January 10-11, then 146, 148 and 145 on January
12-14, 140 on January 15-16, 145 on January 17-19, 150 and 155 on
January 20-21, 160 on January 22-23, 165 on January 24-26, then 160,
155, 155, 158 and 155 on January 27-31, 150 and 148 on February 1-2,
145 on February 3-4, 140 on February 5-6, 150 on February 7-9, 145
on February 10, 140 on February 11-12, and 145 on February 13-15.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on January 6-7, 5 on January
8-16, then 8, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on January 17-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 28, 15 and 10 on January 25-28, and 5 on January
29-30, 18 on January 31 through February 1,15 and 10 on February
2-3, and 5 on February 4-12.

OK1HH wrote:

"Solar activity increased so rapidly in recent years that earlier
last year it already reached the level predicted for July 2025, the
predicted peak of the current 25th solar cycle. The year 2022 ended
with the highest monthly sunspot count in 7 years.

"Solar flares are already routinely of moderate magnitude (M-class
in X-rays), while geomagnetic disturbances are so far only very
rarely in a higher class than G1 (minor). In the G1 class was also
the disturbance on 30 December, which was triggered by a CIR
(co-rotating interaction region) impact, as predicted.

"This week the Earth is in the impact zone of possible eruptions in
the AR3176 sunspot group directly opposite our planet, which
produces M-class solar flares. The strongest so far, on December 30
at 1938 UTC, was class M3.7, which sent a CME toward Earth with an
expected arrival on January 4 - and the prediction proved correct -
the disturbance began at 0254 UTC.

"The CMEs filled the space between the Sun and Earth, and clouds of
solar plasma shielded the incoming cosmic rays enough to reach a
six-year low.

"Thus, since 26 December, we can observe the 'Forbush Decline,'
named after the American physicist Scott Forbush, who studied cosmic
rays in the early 20th century and first noticed the relationship
between them and solar activity. With more CMEs hitting Earth, the
cosmic ray decline will grow.

"On January 3 at 1058 UTC, something exploded on the far side of the
Sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) detected a bright
CME sweeping across the southeastern limb of the Sun. The source of
the outburst was likely the old sunspot AR3163, which has been on
the Sun's far side for the past two weeks. We are now starting to
see it on the solar disk as AR3182, and we might tentatively expect
an X-class flare from it.

"The Geminid meteor shower is coming to Earth these days. On the
first three days of January, the most meteors arrived on January 3
at 2127 UTC when the Zenithal Hourly Rate (ZHR) of 125.3 was
calculated. Also, the activity of the sporadic-E layer in the
ionosphere increased, which we immediately noticed in the fading
shortwave propagation conditions (because sporadic-E is sporadic).

"ZHR (Zenithal Hourly Rate) of a meteor shower is the number of
meteors a single observer would see in an hour of peak activity if
it was at the zenith, assuming the observing conditions are
excellent (when and where stars with apparent magnitudes up to 6.5
are visible to the naked eye)."

OK1HH mentioned sunspot numbers are ahead of the consensus forecast
for Solar Cycle 25, so we will compare averages from a year ago with
current numbers.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 for 2022, the average
sunspot number reported was 36.4, and 97 in the current report.
Average solar flux a year ago was 91.4, compared to 157.8 this week.

Reader David Moore sends along this link about our Sun's corona:

https://bit.ly/3XaNsXz

Here is an article on Siberian Radioheliograph:

https://bit.ly/3vGFJVm

Solar outburst:

https://bit.ly/3X6oUio

A record of old sunspot numbers can be found here:

https://bit.ly/3XbX8B2

Solar Terrestrial Activity Report:

http://www.solen.info/solar/

Identifying unknown HF signals:

https://www.sigidwiki.com/wiki/Category:HF

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2022 through January 4, 2023 were
113, 121, 82, 94, 94, 89, and 86, with a mean of 97. 10.7 cm flux
was 162.8, 178.3, 164.9, 152.6, 146.4, 148.5, and 151, with a mean
of 157.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 31, 16, 14, 8, 7,
and 21, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 22, 10,
9, 5, 5, and 17, with a mean of 10.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 13, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could
be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and
by far the all time largest.

But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is
emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak
about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.

Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look
forward to great HF propagation for years to come.

There were six new emerging sunspot groups in our reporting week,
January 5-11. The first two appeared January 5, the next on January
8, another on January 9 two more January 10 and still another on
January 12, when the sunspot number was 151.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 97 to 135.9, and average
daily solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, compared to the previous seven
days.

On Thursday, January 12 the noon solar flux was huge, 211.6, far
above the 181.2 average for the previous week.

Average daily planetary A index declined from 15.4 to 6.7, and
middle latitude A index from 10.9 to 6.1.

Compare the solar numbers to last year. A year ago in Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 the average daily sunspot number was only
42.4 (135.9 now) and average daily solar flux was 101.6 (181.2 now).
10 and 12 meters now have openings every day.

The solar flux prediction was revised dramatically upward between
the Wednesday numbers in Thursday's ARRL Letter and the Thursday
numbers in this bulletin, from 196 to 210 for January 13.

Predicted solar flux is 210 on January 13 and 14, then 208, 206 and
204 on January 15-17, 200 on January 18-19, then 180, 160, 130 and
135 on January 20-23, 140 on January 24-26, 145 on January 27, then
155, 155 and 160 on January 28-30, 170 on January 31 through
February 2, 175 and 180 on February 3-4, 185 on February 5-6, then
180, 178 and 175 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-12, 145 on
February 13, 140 on February 14-16, 130 on February 17-18 and
increasing to 160 by the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, and 8 on January 13-15, 5 on
January 16-17, then 10, 8, 10 and 8 on January 18-21, 5 on January
22-24, then 8, 22, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January 29-31,
then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-5, then 10, 12 and 8
on February 6-8, 5 on February 9-13, then 8, 15, 10 and 7 on
February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"There was a 6 meter F2 opening between Ecuador and North America
January 6, 2023 around 1530 UTC, mostly between the Southeast United
States and Ecuador. Solar Flux was 172.4.

"Later there was some weak sporadic-E on 6 Meters. I logged W4IMD
(EM84) at 1942 UTC and W7JW (EN82) on 6 meter FT8 via Es at 1954 UTC
January 6.

"High Solar Activity this week."

N0JK writes "The World Above 50 MHz" column in QST.

https://www.arrl.org/the-world-above-50-mhz

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology after the beginning of this year, showed that the
region of active heliographic longitude, gradually approached the
eastern limb of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their
arrival. Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11.
Yet one solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two
turns back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles never
left the Sun.

"In the following days AR3182 activity was joined by the newly
erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An X-class
flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 at 1850 UTC).

"Since most of the large flares in the last few days occurred when
it was nighttime in Europe, blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 at 1850 UTC that a shortwave blackout was
seen in the western Atlantic, including east coast of the U.S. On
January 10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new
sunspot group AR3186.

"As active regions approach the central meridian, the probability of
Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or more
importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
conditions gradually somewhat worsens during disturbances that are
difficult to predict accurately."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Pennsylvania (FN20jq) reported, "On
Thursday, January 12, 29.6 MHz FM went active with 3-hop sporadic-E transatlantic propagation to England, Spain from 1346 thru 1600 UTC,
then to single hop Es to Puerto Rico at 1813 UTC.

"Readability ranged from (1) unreadable to (4) practically no
difficulty, Strength ranged from (1) faint - signals barely
perceptible to (5) fairly good signals. All signals had deep QSB.

"Time UTC: Callsign: Grid: Miles
1346 G3YPZ JO02bs 3,494
1354,1528 G4RIE IO83rn 3,372
1413,1521 2E0PLO IO91wm 3,511
1600 EA2CCG IN92ao 3,660
1813 KP4NVX FK68vl 1,625"

Here is a photo of the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3kfmXSR

One of a Solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3W9EWav

Solar news in the Washington Post:

https://wapo.st/3iul6sN

An article on Radio blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3Xvc4dV

The Parker Solar Probe:

https://youtu.be/pOZhPz92Dic

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/UPG-BhDybUM

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 5 through 11, 2023 were 103, 101, 104, 117,
142, 201, and 183, with a mean of 135.9. 10.7 cm flux was 154.3,
172.4, 178.9, 183.8, 190.9, 193, and 195.1, with a mean of 181.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 4, 6, 8, 5, 7, and 9, with a
mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 5, 7, 7, 6, and 8,
with a mean of 6.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 20, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 opened with "Wow!"
I don't know what to say about this week, except it is beyond wow.

This actually has me thinking about Solar Cycle 19.

Lately we have seen solar flux at the same levels we saw at the peak
of Solar Cycle 23. If we are about 30 months away from the peak of
this Solar Cycle 25, could this get us to the 1957-59 levels last
seen in Solar Cycle 19? Stories from that time tell of worldwide
coverage 24x7 on 10 meter AM from low power mobile stations.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 135.9 to 173.4, while
average solar flux went to 221.8 from 181.2. Yesterday the thrice
daily solar flux reported from the Penticton, British Columbia
observatory indicated rising solar flux at 224.6, 226.1 and 230.1.
These are recorded at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC. It is the middle
number, at local noon, that is recorded as the official number for
the day.

From Spaceweather.com: "If sunspot production continues apace for
the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year
high."

Average planetary A index increased from 6.7 to 13.9,

On January 15 the planetary A index reached a peak of 30, a very
high value indicating a geomagnetic storm. Conditions were stormy
throughout the week, due to flares and CMEs. On that day in
Fairbanks, Alaska the college A index was 53, a very high number.
There was a large polar cap absorption event.

Nine new sunspot groups appeared during this reporting week, January
12-18. One on January 12, four on January 13, two more on January
15, and two more, one each on January 17 and 18.

Predicted solar flux is 220 on January 20-21, 215 on January 22-23,
210 on January 24-25, 215 on January 26-27, 185 on January 28-29,
190 on January 30 through February 2, 195 and 200 on February 3-4,
205 on February 5-6, 210 on February 7-11, then a big jump to 235
and 230 on February 12-13, 225 on February 14-16, 220 on February
17, then 215 on February 18-19, 210 and 200 on February 20-21, 190
on February 22-23, and 185 on February 24-25. Solar flux is expected
to rise above 200 again in the first week of March.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12 and 8 on January 20-22, 5 on
January 23-24, then 12, 10, 12 and 8 on January 25-28, 5 on January
29 through 31, then 12 and 8 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-6,
then 12, 12, 15 and 12 on February 7-10, 5 on February 11-13, then
8, 15, 10 and 7 on February 14-17, 5 on February 18-20, then 7, 18,
10 and 7 on February 21-24, 5 on February 25-26, then 7, 18, 12 and
8 on February 27 through March 2.

OK1HH wrote:

"Large sunspot groups on the Sun's far side, detected by
helioseismology at the beginning of this year, showed the region of
active heliographic longitude gradually approached the eastern limb
of the solar disk. Solar activity increased after their arrival.

"Solar flux rose from 146 on January 2 to 195 on January 11. Yet one
solar revolution back (December 15) it was only 166 and two turns
back (November 18) only 116.

"The January 6 prediction of increasing activity was brilliantly
confirmed, especially by a large X-class flare in AR3182 with a
maximum at 0057 UTC.

"Surprisingly, it did not produce a CME - the ejected particles
never left the Sun.

"In the following days, the activity of AR3182 was joined by the
newly erupted AR3184, again in the southeast of the solar disk. An
X-class flare was observed there as well (X1.9 on January 9 1850
UTC). Most of the large flares in the last few days occurred during
nighttime in Europe. Blackouts up to 30 MHz were recorded,
especially by stations in and around the Pacific. It was not until
the eruption on January 9 that a shortwave blackout was seen in the
western Atlantic, including the East Coast of the U.S. On January
10, the Sun produced another X-class eruption, from new sunspot
group AR3186.

"As active regions approached the central meridian, the probability
of Earth being hit by particles from possible CMEs increases, or
more importantly the Earth's magnetic field activity increases, MUF
levels decrease, and the evolution of shortwave propagation
gradually worsens, especially during disturbances that are difficult
to predict accurately."

Sam, KY8R commented on 30 meter propagation:

"Reading your report it looks good, but I have to tell you 30M is
like a dead horse in the Sonoran Desert."

I replied:

"On FT8 and I make many contacts on 30 meters, but it seems to be
best around sunrise or sunset, before and after.

"I just did a prediction with W6ELprop and it shows 30 meters from
my location (CN87) open during daylight hours to the East Coast, and
to Texas 24x7 with brief dropouts at 7am local here (1500 UTC) and
10:30 PM (0630 UTC).

"From your location, it looks different. To Texas it fades starting
at 0200 UTC and stays dead until 1400 UTC and is strongest at 1500
and 2330 UTC.

"To Atlanta from DM33 (you) it is weakest from 1700-2100 UTC. Of
course, these are statistical approximations."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq is having fun
on 10 meter FM.

"Today (January 19) I made a 2-way QSO with John, AL7ID in Fairbanks
for five minutes from 2028-2033 UTC on the 29.6 MHz national calling
frequency, then QSY 29.5 FM.

"I just barely heard him mention the QSY to 29.5.

"Initially he was 2x2 QSB, then minutes later 3x4 QSB.

"The FM signal was spreading apart due to F2 propagation and made it
difficult at times.

"He was my first Alaska 10-meter FM simplex contact!"

Mike has a YouTube video of both his Alaska QSO, and another with
Argentina:

https://youtu.be/NDZACCqMd08

Earlier, Mike reported:

"On Tuesday, January 17th, 29.6 MHz FM went active with multi-hop
sporadic-E or F2 propagation into France, United Kingdom, Mexico,
Alaska, and Argentina into the northeast USA.

"Readability ranged from unreadable to practically no difficulty,
Strength ranged from faint - signals barely perceptible to fair
signals. All the signals had light QSB.

"UTC: Callsign: Grid:
1544 F5SDD JN23qf
1617 G4RIE IO83rn
1803 XE2LVM DL92dp
2040 AL7ID BP64ku
2040 LU1HJS FF79XX"

Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

"Some interesting 6 meter propagation on January 16.

"First, there appeared to be a 6 meter F2 opening between Puerto
Rico and Colorado that morning. K0RI in DM78 and NO0T/P in DN70
spotted KP4AJ in FK68 around 1550 UTC on 6 meter FT8. No
intermediate stations spotted. The 10.7 cm solar flux was reported
to be 234. [Jon had probably not seen the updated flux for that day
yet. It was actually 228.1 and 234.3 the day before.]

"Later there was sporadic-E from Kansas to Mexico. I logged XE2JS in
DL68 at 1605 UTC. He was very strong.

"That afternoon the TN8K DXpedition to the Congo Republic worked
PJ4MM, V26OC, and FG8OJ on 6 meter FT8 via F-layer propagation around
2230 UTC.

"The ARRL January VHF contest is this weekend. There is a
possibility of sporadic-E and even some F2 on 6 meters in this
contest."

Later Jon reported a 6 meter contact with Mexico.

Sunspots in the news:

https://bit.ly/3Hdilp4

Sky & Telescope with an article on giant sunspot group AR3190:

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/see-a-giant-sunspot/

An article on 11 year, 100 year, and 2300 year cycles:

https://bit.ly/3kjVSxC

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/e-p-tpNkOss

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 12 through 18, 2023 were 151, 181, 170, 177,
186, 185, and 164, with a mean of 173.4. 10.7 cm flux was 211.6,
208.5, 227.8, 234.3, 228.1, 221.7, and 220.3, with a mean of 221.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 12, 11, 30, 14, 6, and 15,
with a mean of 13.9. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 9, 17, 10,
5, and 11, with a mean of 10.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 27, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

From the first week of this year, we saw a dramatic and welcome
increase in solar activity, but it softened in this reporting week,
January 19-25.

Average daily sunspot numbers starting with the final reporting week
for 2022 were 96.1, 97, 135.9. 173.4 and 162.

Over the same period, average daily solar flux was 143.8, 157.8,
181.2, 221.8 and 198.9.

The northern hemisphere Winter Solstice was over a month ago, and
through the next two months we will see a gradual transition toward
Spring conditions.

Predicted solar flux over the next month shows values peaking near
205 on February 14-15, but flux values in the next few days are
lower than those posted in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted numbers are 150 on January 27-28, 145 on January 29-30,
140 on January 31 through February 1, then 145, 150 and a big jump
to 185 on February 2-4, 190 on February 5-6, 195 on February 7-12,
200 on February 13, 205 on February 14-15, 200 on February 16-18,
then 195, 200, and 190 on February 19-21, 185 on February 22-23, 180
on February 24-25, then 175 on February 26 through March 1, then
180, 185 and 190 on March 2-4. Flux values are expected to keep
rising, peaking above 200 again after March 10.

Predicted planetary A index, an indicator of geomagnetic instability
is 8 on January 27-28, 5 on January 29 through February 1, 12 and 8
on February 2-3, 5 on February 4-6, 12 on February 7-8, then 15, 12
and 5 on February 9-11, 8 on February 12-13, 5 on February 14-17,
then 8, 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 18-22, 8 on February 23-25,
then 5 on February 26-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on February 28 through
March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 26, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"We had a week of increased solar activity with areas of sunspots
visible to the naked eye. These were AR3190 and AR3192. The ejected
CMEs produced auroras at higher latitudes. Since the geomagnetic
disturbances were mostly short-lived, they did not cause a
noticeable deterioration in shortwave propagation.

"A CME hit the Earth on 17 January at around 2200 UTC. At the same
time, it also hit the tail of comet ZTF (C/2022 E3) and broke it! A
piece of the tail of comet ZTF was chipped off and then carried away
by the solar wind.

"In recent days, AR3190 was the largest and most active, but even it
produced no more than moderately powerful flares. Both large
regions, AR3190 in the southwest and AR3192 in the northwest, are
beyond the edge of the solar disk by January 26. This is associated
with a significant drop in solar activity. While we know of other
active regions beyond the eastern limb of the solar disk, these are
not large enough to expect a repeat of the January pattern in
February. But we expect a similarly erratic pattern contributing to
limited forecasting capabilities."

Long time reader and contributor David Moore sends us this:

https://bit.ly/3Jg7V9B

An article about Starspots:

https://bit.ly/3Hxoywn

KA3JAW is still having fun with 10 meter FM on 29.6 MHz.

On January 26 from 1430-1450 UTC he worked SV6EXH. With QSB, signals
were 3x3 to 5x5. Earlier on January 21 at 1646 UTC he worked DM5TS,
signals 4x5 with QSB.

Jon Jones, N0JK reported:

"Sunday morning (January 22, 2023) of the ARRL January VHF Contest
had some great propagation on the 6 meter band. I operated portable
signing W1AW/0 for VOTA. I was surprised when I turned on the radio
after setting up and the FT8 band map screen was full of strong
traces at 1505 UTC.

"There was a surprise sporadic-E opening Sunday morning to W1, W2,
W3, VE3, and W8. The Ontario stations were booming in and I had a
pileup calling. Even some F2 with PJ4MM in FK52 peaking at -8 dB at
1554 UTC.

"Even more amazing MM0AMW decoded several W9 stations on 6 meters.
Several stations I worked, such as KW9A were spotted into Scotland.
Unsure if the propagation mode was multi-hop Es or F2?

"Later that evening an Es -- TEP opening from the northeast states
to South America."

More dramatic solar warnings.

https://bit.ly/3XGqNmL

Here is a prediction that was WAY off:

https://bit.ly/3Jn9UJl

Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new video:

https://youtu.be/Vuv3fRUD1Mo

This weekend is the CQ World-Wide 160-Meter CW contest.

Check https://www.cq160.com for details.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 19 through 25, 2023 were 166, 197, 194, 166,
144, 127, and 140, with a mean of 162. 10.7 cm flux was 226.1,
217.5, 208.7, 198.6, 189.1, 180.2, and 171.8, with a mean of 198.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 6, 17, 9, 7, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 11, 7, 5, 3, and 5,
with a mean of 5.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 3, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity softened again this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers changing from 162 to 80.7, and solar flux from 198.9 to
139.5.

This is quite a dramatic shift from the excitement of a couple of
weeks ago. To review, average weekly sunspot numbers from the first
Propagation Forecast bulletin of 2023 went from 97 to 135.9, 173.4
and 162. Average weekly solar flux from 157.8 to 181.2, 221.8 and
198.9.

This variability is expected. Soon, perhaps in the next solar
rotation, activity will rise again. The graphs we see of smoothed
sunspot numbers are smooth because the numbers are averaged over a
whole year.

Geomagnetic numbers barely changed at all, with planetary A index
shifting only from 8.1 to 7.9 and the middle latitude numbers did
not change at all, 5.9 last week and 5.9 this week.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 3, 140 on February 4-5, 145
on February 6, 150 on February 7-9, 155 on February 10-13, 150 on
February 14-16, 145 on February 17, 140 on February 18-19, 135 on
February 20, 130 on February 21-23, 125 on February 24-25, 140 on
February 26-27, 135 on February 28 through March 4, then 140 and 145
on March 5-6, 150 on March 7-8. and 155 on March 9-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5 and 5 on February 3-5, 10 on
February 6-7, 8 on February 8-9, then 12, 5, 8 and 8 on February
10-13, 5 on February 14-17, then 8, 7, 5 and 5 on February 18-21, 10
on February 22-24, 5 on February 25-27, then 15, 10 and 8 on
February 28 to March 2, and 5 on March 3-5, then 15 on March 6-8,
then 12, 8 and 7 on March 9-11 and 5 on March 12-16.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere February 3-9, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"January this year was another surprise in the development of Solar
Cycle 25, although we are still about two years away from its peak.
Sunspots have grown larger, while the configuration of the magnetic
fields that make them up has become increasingly complex, leading to
an increase in the number and intensity of eruptions, so far only
moderately powerful.

"Solar flux between 12 and 21 January was above 200, while the solar
wind increased.

"In the last week, after the large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192
fell behind the western limb of the solar disk, solar activity
decreased. Between January 27-29 and February 1, solar wind
intensified, apparently still blowing from the active regions that
had already set.

"Further, we expect an irregular evolution without major
fluctuations. Helioseismological observations show that the activity
of AR3190 and AR3192 continue on the Sun's far side. We'll have to
wait another week for their reappearance on the eastern limb."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania reports again on his
10 meter FM activity. He notes the daily solar flux dropped about
100 points from mid-January, but good 10 meter propagation
continues.

Daily from 1300-1600 UTC he has good propagation to Europe, and is
recently hearing Israel on 10 meter FM, about 5,700 miles away via
F2 propagation.

Mike notes, "Remember, 29.6 MHz is the national FM calling
frequency, after making the initial contact you should QSY to a
lower frequency, such as 29.5 or 29.49 MHz, to continue the QSO."

Jim Hadlock, posting to the email list for the Western Washington DX
Club noted that sunspot numbers recently hit a 9-year high.

Jim posted this from Spaceweather.com:

https://bit.ly/40DEzsj

Scott Avery, WA6LIE wrote:

"Today was a fluke on 10 meters FT8. I worked LA7HJA on FT8 on
Thursday February 2nd at 0041 UTC. He gave me a +04 and I gave him
a -13 dB report. Great reports and tried calling one other LA, but
no luck. I confirmed the QSO with his ClubLog.

"For the past month or so, European openings are from about
1500-1730 UTC here in California.

"Have no clue to the method of propagation on this late afternoon's
QSO. LP?

"I was just using a wire Delta Loop at 30' feedpoint, part of my
inverted Vees all common feedpoint.

"You know in this hobby you just got to be in the right place at the
right time!"

Toivo Mykkanen, W8TJM in Liberty Lake, Washington wrote:

"Just had the best Aurora Path into Scandinavia since we last spoke
last year. Today, 1 Feb, I was able to work 4 stations on SSB in
Finland from Eastern Washington and all of them were 10-15 dB over
S9 with a slight bit of flutter. It was 10 PM in Finland, well after
15 meters usually shuts down there. Was great to connect with my
heritage as my parents are from Finland. The Finnish stations were
working stations all across the USA and Canada."

Bil Paul, KD8JUI, recalling television reception at the peak of
Solar Cycle 19, wrote:

"We were in Wisconsin, around '58 or '59, and we could usually only
pick up with good reception two TV stations. One Sunday morning I
got up and switched on the TV. I started getting good reception from
the SE U.S., Georgia and Florida.

"As time went on, the skip gradually changed to receiving Alabama
and Mississippi, and finally ended with Texas. I'm not sure what
frequencies were being used for those channels (2 through 13) back
then."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers January 26 through February 1, 2023 were 104, 84,
76, 80, 67, 65, and 89, with a mean of 80.7. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
144.9, 137.6, 137, 135.9, 137, and 133.5, with a mean of 139.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 9, 10, 5, 5, 9, and 6, with a
mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 6, 8, 5, 4, 6, and 3,
with a mean of 5.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 10, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

A period of rising solar activity returned this week.

Ten new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week (February 2-8),
two on February 3, one each on February 4-5, four more on February
6, and two more on February 8.

On February 9, three more sunspot groups emerged.

Early on February 9 Spaceweather.com reported a large emerging
sunspot over our Sun's southeast horizon.

Average daily sunspot number this week rose from 80.7 to 95.1, and
average daily solar flux from 139.5 to 155.9.

On Thursday, February 9 both the sunspot number and solar flux were
above the average for the previous seven days. Sunspot number at 150
compared to the average 95.1 and solar flux at 214.9 compared to the
average of 155.9. Both indicate an upward trend.

Geomagnetic indicators rose, planetary A index from 7.9 to 11.7,
middle latitude numbers from 5.9 to 7.6.

The rise in geomagnetic activity was related to solar wind late in
the reporting week.

The solar flux prediction on Wednesday was 192 for February 9 (the
actual noon solar flux was 214.9), then 195 on February 10-13. As
you can see below, the Thursday prediction is more optimistic for
the next few days.

Predicted solar flux is 214 on February 10, 212 on February 11-13,
then 208, 205 and 202 on February 14-16, 150 on February 17-18, then
145, 140, 135, 130 and 135 on February 19-23, 130 on February 24-26,
125 on February 27, 130 on February 28 through March 3, then 135,
150 and 160 on March 4-6, 155 on March 7-8, 160 on March 9, and 155
on March 10-12, then 150 on March 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on February 10-11, then 5
on February 12-17, 8 on February 18-19, 5 on February 20-21, 10 on
February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27, and 5, 5, and 8
on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5, and 10 on March 3-5, then
15, 15, 12 and 8 on March 6-9, then 5 on March 10-16, 8 on March
17-18, 5 on March 19-20 and 10 on March 21-23.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 9, 2023.

"Solar activity was lower between 26 January and 6 February, as
expected. Two weeks ago, large sunspot groups AR3190 and AR3192,
fell behind the Sun's western limb. They have now appeared near the
eastern limb as AR3217 and AR3218. In particular, the region of
AR3217 was already letting us know of its activity with plasma
bursts before we could observe it.

"Thereafter we observed moderate flares in it. AR3217 and AR3218
will now move through the solar disk, and the increase in solar
activity will continue.

"On February 7, rapidly developing sunspot group AR3213 suddenly
appeared, where at most only two small spots could be observed
shortly before. Medium-sized flares were observed in AR3213 in the
following days.

"Another new activity was the increase in the Earth's magnetic field
activity starting on February 6.

"The subsequent increase in the MUF (highest usable frequencies of
the ionospheric F2 layer) has been slow and irregular so far. We
will have to wait a few more days for its higher values."

Check out Scott Craig, WA4TTK and his Solar Data Plotting Utility.
He wrote it several decades ago back in the days of MS-DOS, and the
Windows version still works today. It displays sunspot numbers and
solar flux all the way back to January 1, 1989:

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

Click the "Download SOL313W.ZIP" file to install the program, then
download the updated GRAPH.dat file for the latest data. It is
updated to last week, so you can try out the data insertion on this
bulletin.

He posted a new copy of the data file, provided by N1API.

The utility will update the data every week by pointing it toward a
copy of our bulletin in .txt format.

The GRAPH.dat file is in text format and can be imported into a
spreadsheet program to display the data any way you want.

Tech Times and Weather.com articles on a Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/40J3g6m

https://bit.ly/3lojTnY

KB1DK sent this article about something occurring on our Sun:

https://bit.ly/3Xju0r9

Larry, W0OGH in Cochise County, Arizona wrote:

"Who says you can't have fun running QRP?

"I started playing with QRP on CW, my KX3 at 10W and 10M 4 element
Yagi just after February 1.

"Why so late in the game? I don't know but maybe it was because the
signals took such an upturn in strength.

"Have been working some POTA stations QRP but no DX until February 1
when I worked E77DX, OK9PEP, PA1CC, DS2HWS, UA1CE, YL3FT, UY2VM,
HB0/HB9LCW, OT4A, ON4KHG, S01WS, ZX89L, CX5FK, 9A/UW1GZ, LZ1ND,
PA3EVY, YU1JW, F6IQA, EA6ACA, ON5ZZ, GM4ATA, OP4F, EI0CZ and many
more, all on 10 meters.

"But the kicker and best of all was working EP2ABS on the morning of
2/6/23 at 1654 UTC on 28.0258 MHz.

"First time ever in 65 years that I have ever worked an Iran station
much less heard one. He was really strong and calling CQ getting no
answers. At the same time I called him, another station called as
well but he came back to me.

"Thereafter he had a pileup, but his signal started dropping off, so
I caught him at the right time. Maybe a duct? Yep, the DX is out
there on 10M and when the band is hot, you gotta be there.

"I have even worked some AM stations on and above 29.000 MHz with
QRP. Lots more fun than high power which in my case is 100W from my
K3."

A friend here in Seattle worked him on the same day, was very
surprised, and mentioned a friend in California who worked EP2ABS
with 100 watts and an 18 foot wire.

Another "news" source reporting rising solar activity as some sort
of existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3YiRcXP

https://bit.ly/3RQ8CZz

A more reliable source:

https://bit.ly/3YAAIu4

Dr. Tamitha Skov's, WX6SWW, latest report from February 5:

https://youtu.be/1Bcmzj7h_mY

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 2 through 8, 2023 were 56, 74, 66, 79,
139, 110, and 142, with a mean of 95.1. 10.7 cm flux was 134.9,
134.5, 139, 144, 156.7, 184.7, and 197.6, with a mean of 155.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 6, 5, 18, 20, and 18, with
a mean of 11.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 5, 3, 13, 12, and
12, with a mean of 7.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP07
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 17, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

At 0725 UTC on February 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning: "A CME impact
occurred around 2200 UTC on February 14. Bz has been southward for
the majority of time since impact and there is a chance of G1
geomagnetic conditions."

Bz is the north-south direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF).

They predicted a disturbance for February 15-16.

They issued a new warning on February 17 at 0206 UTC:

"A partial halo CME observed on 15-Feb is due to impact Earth's
magnetosphere late on 17-Feb or early 18-Feb UTC. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Feb, with a slight chance of G2.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION FROM 17-19 FEBRUARY 2023."

For the latest geomagnetic conditions, I prefer this source:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

More on the IMF:

https://bit.ly/3E6IZ15

Many sunspots appeared over this reporting week (February 9-15) with
three new sunspot groups on February 9, one more on February 10, two
more on February 11, another on February 12 and three more on
February 13. Finally, there was one more yesterday, Thursday,
February 16.

Recent sunspot images:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/12feb23/hmi1898.gif

That one is for February 12. To see February 13, just change the
12feb23 string to 13feb23, and so on, for any other date.

Average daily sunspot numbers increased from 95.1 to 182.4, and
average daily solar flux from 155.9 to 196.4.

Geomagnetic activity also rose, with average daily planetary A index
going from 11.7 to 13.7, and middle latitude numbers from 7.6 to
10.7.

The most active days were at the beginning and end of the week, with
planetary A index at 21 on February 9 and 29 on February 15. On
those two days the college A index at Fairbanks, Alaska was 33 and
46. The quietest day was Monday, February 13 when the planetary A
index was 4.

The outlook for the next month seems modest, with predicted solar
flux at 155, 160, 155, 145 and 135 on February 17-21, 125 on
February 22-23, 130 on February 24-26, 140 on February 27 to March
1, 145 on March 2-3, then 150, 155 and 165 on March 4-6, 180 on
March 7-13, 170 on March 14-15, 160 on March 16-18, and 150 on March
19, 140 on March 20-21, and 135 on March 22-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 22, 30, 12, 8 and 12 on February
17-21, 10 on February 22-24, then 5, 5 and 8 on February 25-27,
another 5, 5, and 8 on February 28 through March 2, then 5, 5 and 16
on March 3-5, then 18, 15 and 8 on March 6-8, and 5 on March 9-20,
then 10 on March 21-23, and 5, 5 and 8 on March 24-26, and another
5, 5 and 8 on March 27-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - February 16, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On February 11, we observed a seemingly dangerous sunspot group
AR3217, whose magnetic field had a beta-gamma-delta configuration,
in which large flares are often observed, up to X-class flares
accompanied by CMEs. This is what we saw at 1548 UTC, while extreme
UV radiation ionized the upper part of the Earth's atmosphere.
Direct result was the Dellinger effect, which disrupted shortwave communications over all of South America.

"But this particular eruption did not create a CME. Another
explosion did. Five hours before the X eruption, a magnetic filament
appeared in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which spewed a CME
into space. Thereafter we were expecting an Earth impact on
Valentine's Day, February 14. This was a fairly accurate prediction
because the Earth's intervention occurred just one day later, on
February 15. It was not a direct hit, only a weak G1 class
geomagnetic storm developed.

"On February 15 a magnetic filament eruption near the solar equator
and another CME heading towards Earth was observed. We can expect an
arrival on February 17-18, again as a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm, perhaps intensifying to a mild G2 class storm on February 18.
Further we can expect to see more M-class solar flares in the next
few days. Also, an X-class flare is not out of the question. In
addition, the AR3226 sunspot group with an unstable magnetic field,
is directly facing the Earth."

Impossible but dramatic solar image:

https://bit.ly/3Ib3eMp

Spaceweather.com warns:

"GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Photographers, warm up your cameras. A CME
is heading for Earth, and it could spark an unusually good display
of Northern Lights when it arrives on Feb. 17-18. NOAA forecasters
say that moderate G2-class geomagnetic storms are possible. During
such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as,
e.g., New York and Idaho."

From the Western Washington DX Club email list:

WT8P posted at 1855 UTC on February 16:

"6M FT8 open to central and SA At 1845 UTC, LU9AEA (Argentina) and
TG9AJR (Guatemala) on FT8, 50.313 MHz."

W7YED posted at 1939 UTC, February 16:

"I was able to pick up 5 new ones on 6m in the space of about 20
minutes. Nice opening!

"TI, CX, CE, LU, TG were all between +3 and -18."

A story about "vicious solar storms":

https://bit.ly/3S8g7uV

Aurora on Valentine's Day:

https://bit.ly/3YUvsSb

A video last week from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/Igfp_EK73Xk

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL International DX Contest.
For details see: https://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx .

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15, 2023 were 150, 190, 209,
197, 185, 206, and 140, with a mean of 182.4. 10.7 cm flux was
214.9, 207.8, 209.5, 199.7, 189.2, 179.7, and 173.7, with a mean of
196.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 16, 11, 7, 4, 8, and
29, with a mean of 13.7. Middle latitude A index was 16, 12, 10, 5,
3, 6, and 23, with a mean of 10.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.15-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP13
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 13 ARLP013
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA March 31, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP013
ARLP013 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week. Average daily sunspot number
rose from 68 to 112.6, and average daily solar flux changed from
145.6 to 156.1.

A new sunspot group emerged on March 24, two more on March 26 and
27, and three on March 29.

Due to solar wind and a geomagnetic disturbance at the beginning of
the reporting week, average daily planetary A index increased from
10.6 to 23.3, while average middle latitude A index went from 8.4 to
13.7. Many reports of aurora came in this week, some down to lower
latitudes in North America.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on March 31, 130 on April 1-6, 132 on
April 7-8, then 130, 132, 135 and 135 on April 9-12, then 140, 145
and 148 on April 13-15, then 150, 150, 155, 155 and 158 on April
16-20, 160 on April 21-23, then 155, 145 and 145 on April 24-26, and
135 on April 27 through May 1, then 132 on May 2-5, then 130, 132,
135 and 135 on May 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 16, 12, 10 and 8 on March 31
through April 4, then 5 on April 5-9, then 15, 12, 8 and 5 on April
10-13, 8 on April 14-15, then 12, 20, 15 and 5 on April 16-19, then
20, 15 and 10 on April 20-22, 8 on April 23-24, 5 on April 25-26,
then 12, 15, 10 and 8 on April 27-30, and 5 on May 1-6, then 15, 12
and 8 on May 7-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - March 30, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The strong geomagnetic storm on 23-24 March was not expected.
Moreover, it was classified as a G4, making it the most intense in
almost 6 years. The source of the solar wind was not identified with
certainty, but a large coronal hole in the south, near the central
meridian, could not be missed.

"As a consequence of the disturbance, the ionosphere first
experienced a rise in the critical frequencies of the F2 layer on 23
March, followed by a significant drop on 24-25 March. Their normal
values started to be registered again only after 26 March.

"Energetic flares are a reliable indicator of the increase in solar
activity. On March 29, the seventh X-class flare of the year was
registered. Yet a total of seven were registered in 2022 and only
two in 2021.

"Most of the sunspots are now on the western half of the solar disk.
As they gradually set, total solar activity will first decrease over
the next week before rising again."

Here are articles about solar activity as an existential threat:

https://bit.ly/3M28RQv

https://bit.ly/42W7xo4

https://bit.ly/40Qf6Lc

Nice sunspot video, before the aurora:

https://bit.ly/3K2alHX

AA7FV wrote on March 25:

"There was a 6-meter opening from Arizona to VK on March 24. I
received VK7HH in Tasmania at 2028 UTC on WSPR; he was using just
0.2 watts (200 mW)."

VK7HH responded:

"Yes, that WSPR spot was from my remote station running 200 mW from
a Zacktek WSPR TX into a 1/2 wave vertical antenna. HASL 931m."

AA7FV wrote:

"For reference, my 50 MHz antenna is a Cushcraft 1/2-wave vertical,
the Ringo AR6, with its base at about 10 feet above ground. The
location here is 870m asl but I'm in the valley, just outside
Tucson. The receiver is an ancient Icom PCR1000, but with a preamp.
I monitor 6m 24/7, but rarely hear any signals at all, and when I do
hear something it's usually from someone else in Arizona."

On March 25, Jon, N0JK wrote:

"Worked VP8NO in GD18 today on 6 Meter FT8 at 1905 UTC. de N0JK
EM28 in Kansas."

Jon was using a portable 2 element Yagi and running 50 watts.

Here is an article about a "Hole" in the Sun:

https://www.space.com/solar-flare-coronal-hole-space-weather

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 23 through 29, 2023 were 73, 108, 105,
125, 128, 114, and 135, with a mean of 112.6. 10.7 cm flux was 151,
157.5, 160.3, 159.4, 158.2, 158.7, and 147.8, with a mean of 156.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 60, 66, 15, 8, 3, 5, and 6, with
a mean of 23.3. Middle latitude A index was 28, 40, 12, 6, 2, 4, and
4, with a mean of 13.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP14
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 14 ARLP014
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 7, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP014
ARLP014 Propagation de K7RA

Average solar flux and sunspot numbers were way down this week.
Sunspot numbers were down by half, from 112.6 last week to 53.4.
Average daily solar flux declined from 156.1 to 132.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower too. Average daily planetary A
index from 23.3 last week to 15 in this bulletin, and average daily
middle latitude A index from 13.7 to 11.7.

The April 1 middle latitude A index of 11 is my guess. The middle
latitude A index for April 1 was not available.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on April 7 and 8, 135 on April 9 to 11,
140, 145 and 130 on on April 12 to 14, 130 on April 14, 135 on April
15 to 17, 140 on April 18 to 20, 135 on April 21 to 23, then 130,
125 and 120 on April 24 to 26, 115 on April 27 to 29, 125 on April
30, 120 on May 1 and 2, 115 on May 3 and 4, then 110 on May 5 to 7,
and 115, 120, 125 and 130 on May 8 to 11, then 135 on May 12 to 14,
and 140 on May 15 to 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on April 7 to 10, then 8, 8 and 5
on April 11 to 13, 8 on April 14 and 15, then 12, 10 and 15 on April
16 to 18, then 5, 20, 15 and 10 on April 19 to 22, 5 on April 23 to
25, then 15 and 18 on April 26 and 27, 15 on April 28 and 29, 8 on
April 30, 10 on May 1 and 2, 8 on May 3, then 5 on May 4 to 6, then
12, 10, 8 and 5 on May 7 to 10, 8 on May 11 and 12, then 10, 12, 15,
5 and 20 on May 13 to 17.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- April 6, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On March 29, another solar flare of category X1.2 was observed. It
came from the AR3256 sunspot group near the southwestern limb of the
Sun.

This year, in just three months, we've already seen seven X-class
flares, the same as all of last year. There are still about two
years to go before the cycle peak.

On the morning of March 31, a solar wind stream hit Earth,
triggering a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm. A relatively quiet
weekend followed.

Then new sunspot group AR3270 emerged in the southern part of the
solar disk. It grew rapidly, its two dark cores, larger than Earth,
indicating an unstable magnetic field. If they merge an eruption
would likely follow. It would probably be a geoeffective eruption
because the sunspot was directly opposite the Earth.

After the AR3270 sunspot group dips behind the southwestern limb of
the solar disk this weekend, there should be a temporary drop in
overall solar activity, accompanied by a string of geomagnetically
quieter days.

As the irregular occurrence of higher geomagnetic activity results
in irregular changes in shortwave propagation conditions, the
subsequent evolution should be more regular and predictable."

This video from Tamitha Skov came out right after last week's
bulletin:

https://youtu.be/F8ERhLiOK88

More sun fun:

https://youtu.be/VWhhSWjDJtw

https://bit.ly/41aolq2

Don't worry:

https://bit.ly/3zCtg74

On April 5 from 1723 to 1746 UTC, Tom, WA1LBK in Fall River,
Massachusetts copied HC1MD/2 in Ecuador on 6 meter FT8. Check HC1MD
on QRZ.com for some beautiful photos by Rick, NE8Z.

https://bit.ly/3zBm5wa

This weekend is the CW portion of the Japan International DX
Contest.

See http://jidx.org/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for March 30 through April 5, 2023 were 99, 61, 23,
54, 56, 44, and 37, with a mean of 53.4. 10.7 cm flux was 140.3,
129.3, 125.3, 126.9, 133.6, 135.7, and 136.6, with a mean of 132.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 21, 13, 15, 15, 13, and 11,
with a mean of 15. Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 11, 13, 11,
10, and 9, with a mean of 11.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP15
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 15 ARLP015
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 14, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP015
ARLP015 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was up for this reporting week, April 6-12.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared, one on April 6, another on April
9, two more on April 10, another on April 11, and two more on April
12. Then on Thursday, April 13, three new sunspot groups emerged.
The sunspot number rose to 154, the highest value in the past month.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 53.4 to 70.6, and average
daily solar flux increased from 132.5 to 141.

On Thursday, the noon solar flux reading was 159.5 and was well
above the average for the previous seven days, perhaps indicating an
upward trend.

Geomagnetic conditions were calm, with average daily planetary A
index dropping from 15 to 7.6, and the middle latitude average from
11.7 to 6.4.

Predicted solar flux was 155 and 160 on April 13-14, and 165 on
April 15-16.

The Thursday prediction was well above that.

Predicted solar flux is 168 on April 14-16, 165 and 160 on April
17-18, 155 on April 19-22, 158 on April 23, 155 on April 24-25, then
152, 148, 145 and 142 on April 26-29, 140 on April 30 and May 1, 142
and 140 on May 2-3, 135 on May 4-5, then 130, 140, 145, 150, 152,
155 and 158 on May 6-12, then 160 on May 13-15, and 150 and 152 on
May 16-17, 155 on May 18-19, then 158, 155 and 155 on May 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 10 and 8 on April 14-17, 5 on
April 18-20, then 8 and 10 on April 21-22, 5 on April 23-25, then 15
and 18 on April 26-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2,
8 on May 3-4, 5 on May 5-6, then 8, 10 and 8 on May 7-9, and 5 on
May 10-13, then 10, 15 and 5 on May 14-16, 20, 15 and 10 on May
17-19, and 5 on May 20-23.

Spaceweather.com released this news on Wednesday:

"Evidence is mounting that Solar Cycle 25 might peak much earlier
than expected. New research by a leading group of solar physicists
predicts maximum sunspot activity in late 2023 or early 2024 with a
peak that could be twice as strong as the previous solar cycle."

Look in the Spaceweather archive for April 12-13 to read more. It
is all explained in this scientific paper:

https://bit.ly/41gZnW4

I noticed some very odd 10 meter propagation at 2000 UTC on April
11. Running FT8 and a one wavelength end fed wire at my home in
Seattle, the only stations that heard me according to
pskreporter.info were one in New Zealand, another in Hawaii, and in
North America, only 5 stations (NK5B, AD4ES, K4RMM, KB4FB and AA4CB)
in Florida, all within a 200 mile strip from 2,512 to 2,712 miles
from me. Checking again at 2015 UTC, it was still the same. It
looked quite dramatic on the pskreporter.info map.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 13, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Relatively frequent C-class solar flares, sporadic M-class flares
in one or two sunspot groups, and the appearance of two or three
relatively small coronal holes - that's how the Sun looked between
April 6 and 13.

"The solar wind speed dropped to 340 km/s by April 9, rose
significantly to 550 km/s on April 10, and then slowly dropped
again. The Earth's magnetic field was unsettled on April 10, then
mostly calm on the other days.

"MUF values were slightly higher on 10 April. This was followed by
11 April with irregular daily MUF and irregular occurrences of
attenuation. Since 12 April onward there was a transition to a
regular daily course of ionospheric parameters.

"Now we can expect higher solar activity in the southern hemisphere.
The rise should continue in the coming days at first. A slight
decrease will follow after the weekend.

"A slight increase in geomagnetic activity with consequent
fluctuations in shortwave propagation conditions can be expected
rather since the middle of next week."

Here is a video about the Termination Event:

https://youtu.be/wcJdNBow_5s

A story on NASA using AI to predict geomagnetic storms:

https://bit.ly/3mws16y

Here is a story about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3UCz8ar

Mike Mason, WB4MM in Daytona Beach, Florida wrote:

"On April 9 2023 FT8 mode 12 meters beginning at 2254 UTC and ending
at 2328 UTC I worked 12 JA stations plus 2 South Korean stations in
a row. I was calling CQ AS WB4MM EL99.

"My station has 100 watts to an attic 15M dipole. I believe the SFI
at the time was 135. Not sure of the type of prop. This occurred
within an hour of sunset at my QTH."

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 6 through 12, 2023 were 33, 38, 49, 52,
92, 103, and 127, with a mean of 70.6. 10.7 cm flux was 137.1,
136.3, 135.9, 140.3, 139.8, 143.4, and 154, with a mean of 141.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 8, 6, 6, 14, 6, and 4, with a
mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 7, 5, 5, 11, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 6.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16 ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 21, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

Again this week sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher than the
week before.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled, from 70.6 to 146.9,
and average daily solar flux increased from 141 to 164.5. Both
figures represent a substantial increase in solar activity.

Planetary A index averages went from 7.6 to 8.1, while middle
latitude A index advanced from 6.4 to 7.3.

Three new sunspot groups emerged on April 13, one more on April 16,
and another on April 17.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 145, 140 and 135 on
April 21-23, 130 on April 24-25, 125 on April 26-27, 160 on April
28-29, 165 on April 30, 172 on May 1-3, 170 on May 4, 172 on May
5-7, 178 on May 8, 182 on May 9-12, then 175, 178 and 170 on May
13-15, 168 on May 16-17, 175 on May 18, then 172 on May 19-21, then
168 and 162 on May 22-23, 160 on May 24-26, 165 on May 27, and 172
on May 28-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 16, 12 and 8 on April 21-24, 5 on
April 25-27, 15 on April 28-30, then 12 and 10 on May 1-2, 8 on May
3-4, 5 on May 5-6, 12 on May 7, 5 on May 8-10, then 8 on May 11-12,
5 on May 13-18, then 10, 8, 5 and 5 on May 19-22, 15 and 18 on May
23-24, 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Of the fifteen sunspot groups observed over the past week, AR3272
and AR3282 were the source of most of the flares. Both had a
beta-gamma magnitude configuration. 61 C-class flares and 4 M-class
flares were observed.

"The partial halo CMEs on 15 and 16 April were the source of
particles that reached Earth on 18 April, when the solar wind speed
increased abruptly at 1308 UTC and a geomagnetic disturbance
developed.

"A positive phase of the ionospheric disturbance was recorded on the
afternoon of 18 April, followed by a negative phase on 19 April.
This was followed on 20 April with a significant increase in f0F2
and improved shortwave propagation conditions before noon UTC.

"The outlook looks promising for the first half of May, when solar
activity should increase further."

Dan Handa, W7WA commented on the news last week about the current
solar cycle reaching a peak earlier than predicted, perhaps by the
end of this year.

I told him I hoped it would not peak early, because I wanted to see
several more years of increasing activity.

Dan sent a very detailed graph of Solar Cycle 19 from 1954 to 1966,
and wrote: "I have read, and more than once, a slow rise means a low
sunspot max. The previous Solar Cycle 24 took five years to reach a
relatively low maximum. A rapid increase can mean a high sunspot
maximum. The granddaddy of our lifetime, Solar Cycle 19 peaked in
three years!"

I did not know this.

In a subsequent message, Dan further commented:

"There was a lot of short term variation in the Solar Cycle 19
sunspot number, just like we're seeing now. From the graph the
timing of the Solar Cycle 19 peak can be defined three different
ways: the daily peak, the smoothed monthly peak or the smoothed
yearly peak, take your pick."

Another Solar Cycle 19? Many hams have dreamed of this for the past
six decades.

Dale, WB6MMQ reported that the solar images in the ARRL Letter with
a preview of our Friday bulletin show a blank Sun. I wasn't sure
what he was talking about, but now I realize this must be a stock
image (not from me!) used in the Letter.

I sent Dale links to some recent images from Spaceweather.com:

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/20apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/19apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/18apr23/hmi1898.gif

https://www.spaceweather.com/images2023/17apr23/hmi1898.gif

I hope this clears up the confusion.

An odd correlation between an ancient epidemic and solar activity:

https://bit.ly/3Lsqfxf

A story about a possible early Solar peak:

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-maximum-may-arrive-early

A story about possible M-class solar flares:

https://bit.ly/3KVc1n1

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 13 through 19, 2023 were 154, 153, 151,
155, 162, 140, and 113, with a mean of 146.9. 10.7 cm flux was
159.5, 171.3, 175.8, 177.8, 166.6, 153.2, and 147, with a mean of
164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 7, 9, 4, 6, 13, and 12,
with a mean of 8.1. Middle latitude A index was 5, 10, 8, 4, 6, 9,
and 9, with a mean of 7.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP17
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 17 ARLP017
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA April 28, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP017
ARLP017 Propagation de K7RA

At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
139.4.

Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
15.6.

Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

Spaceweather.com reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, then 145, 150, 155, 160
and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
impending disturbance.

"The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
between 0300-0400 UTC.

"Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

I replied:

"I recommend pskreporter.info, and look on the map screen for FT8
signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
have to use FT8 to use this.

"You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
own or any callsign. When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
propagation in the south and across the east coast.

"I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

"Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
including its operation. Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on
30m, the two ATNOs."

(I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
years ago. -K7RA)

"But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
'poof' they disappeared.

"These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
seen and goes on for 38 pages.

Aurora observed in China:

https://bit.ly/41KyY3w

Aurora in Iowa:

https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S

An article explaining aurora:

https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2

A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
12, with a mean of 15.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18 ARLP018
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 5, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

Spaceweather.com posted the following report on May 4:

"REVERSED-POLARITY SUNSPOT EXPLODES: A rare reversed-polarity
sunspot exploded today, producing a long-lasting M-class solar flare
and a CME that might hit Earth. Geomagnetic storms are possible this
weekend if/when the CME arrives."

Sunspot activity and solar flux increased over the past reporting
week, April 27 through May 3.

Average daily sunspot numbers climbed from 91.4 to 114, while
average daily solar flux grew from 139.4 to 151.5.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 26.9 to 13.6, and
average daily middle latitude A index declined from 15.6 to 11.9.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 162 on May 5-6, 164 on
May 7, 162 on May 8-9, 164 on May 10-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165,
160, 155, 150, 145 and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, then 130
and 125 on May 22-23, 120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May
26-28, 140 on May 29 through June 2, then 145, 150 and 155, 160 and
165 on June 3-7, 170 on June 8-9, then 165, 160, 155, 150, and 145
on June 10-14. .

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 5, then 12, 8, 5 and 5 on
May 6-9, 5 on May 10-11, 8 on May 12, 5 on May 13-22, 12 and 20 on
May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 8 and 12 on May 27-28, 10 on May 29-30,
then 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 31 through June 3, 5 on June 4-6, 8 on
June 7-8, and 5 on June 9 through mid-month and beyond.

On Wednesday, May 3 Spaceweather.com posted, "INTENSIFYING SOLAR
ACTIVITY: Sunspot complex AR3293-3296 is crackling with strong
M-class solar flares--six of them today so far."

It looks like we face continued favorable HF propagation.

Recently I wrote of my bafflement at 10 meter propagation I observed
using FT8 and pskreporter.info, in which my signals were only being
reported in Florida. I now have a better understanding of this.

On May 1 from 1930-2030 UTC I saw the same thing, with reports from
2,200-2,700 miles away, which suggests a 500 mile wide skip
distance. Mexican stations also reported me, over that same distance
in a 500 mile band. So, this suggests that it isn't just Florida,
and that the same signal is stretching out into the Gulf of Mexico
and the Atlantic Ocean, but I don't see it because there are no
stations there to receive my signal.

Later I saw multi-hop reports from ZL4KYH at 7,246 miles, 5W1SA at
5,230 miles, LU8EX at 6,893 miles and LU4FTA at 6,750 miles.

Jon N0JK wrote on April 29:

"I was able to work LU9DO, LU8EX and PY2XB that afternoon. The South
American signals popped up on what was otherwise a dead band. Later
some station in Florida came in. I was running 50 watts and a 3
element Yagi portable in EM28, northeast Kansas. May 1 - D2UY worked
stations in Florida and W3LPL in Maryland on was likely Es -- TEP.

"There will likely be more of these Es -- TEP openings in early
May."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere May 05-11, 2023 from OK1HH:

"While long-term forecasters are beginning to come to terms with the possibility that the growth in solar activity could slow this year
and the current 25th cycle may not be one of the high ones, solar
activity has begun to increase. Already last week, sunspot group
AR3288 in the southwest with an unstable delta class magnetic field
was the source of an M7 class solar flare on May 1 at 1309 UTC. But
another M7 class eruption occurred on May 3 in the newly emerged
AR3293 in the northeastern part of the solar disk.

"Interestingly, a new group of spots, AR3296 in the northwest,
violates Hale's Law, as it has the opposite magnetic polarity that
is appropriate in the current 11-year cycle (polarity should be
negative on the left and positive on the right).

"The solar wind speed and Earth's magnetic field activity have
finally begun to decrease after a long active period, and the
conditions for shortwave propagation have finally improved, although
not to the extent we had hoped."

A story from Sky & Telescope about the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3NGlMbp

Two stories about massive solar flares, one from about 400 years
ago:

https://bit.ly/427oI5w

https://bit.ly/3ASEfu1

Some nonsense about flares:

https://bit.ly/3NGD5t3

More Aurora in our future:

https://bit.ly/3AZxDKl

A story about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/41bVL74

More about Aurora Australis:

https://ab.co/44qDbet

This weekend is the 10-10 CW QSO Party, on 10 meters of course:

https://www.ten-ten.org/activity/2013-07-22-20-26-48/qso-party-rules

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2023 were 136, 111, 82,
105, 87, 134, and 143, with a mean of 114. 10.7 cm flux was 140.8,
149.8, 155.8, 153.5, 147.9, 156.8, and 156.2, with a mean of 151.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 19, 20, 10, 10, 9, and 4,
with a mean of 13.6. Middle latitude A index was 20, 16, 18, 8, 8,
9, and 4, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19 ARLP019
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 12, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7RA

We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week,
May 4-10.

Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and
average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1

Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and
average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on
May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on
May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on
May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165,
160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May
15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May
27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and
12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20
on June 19-20.

Stormy space weather:

https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge

BBC on viewing aurora:

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/

More:

https://bit.ly/44Rruxk

Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9:

"Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas.

I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This
around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up
portable.

Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty
keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted:

00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down
several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue.

00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact.

22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU

Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es --
TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000
UTC."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable
it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's
magnetosphere and ionosphere.

This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and
also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs
overlapping each other were difficult to separate.

Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected
but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm.
Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310
UTC.

Shortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus
violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare.

The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25
MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over
1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge
accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them
'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They
can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere.

These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the
particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are
expected to arrive.

Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the
solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged
in the northeast.

Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group
will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the
evolution with numerous disturbances will continue."

Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99,
103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162,
161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with
a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and
19, with a mean of 11.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20 ARLP020
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 19, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
marginally lower.

But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
11.9, respectively.

What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

These numbers are updated daily here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt

Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

"How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
Sun:

"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm

"For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
degrees Fahrenheit."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

"On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

"On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

"The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
configuration promises more flares.

"Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
to evolve nicely."

Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

"On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM,
LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

"Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question. Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
geomagnetic indices with this:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html which is handy if you live
in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
more populated.

You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA

NASA sunspot picture:

https://bit.ly/458DrPw

A video of a recent eruption:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY

Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/434c5bw

https://bit.ly/3pWId2e

https://bit.ly/45hXTxh

https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa

NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
5, with a mean of 9.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP21
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21 ARLP021
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA May 26, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP021
ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while
average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were more active. Average daily planetary A
index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index
rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then
150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4,
then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and
11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on
June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June
21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26
and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165
and 160 on July 2 to 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30,
5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5
on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22,
5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2,
and 5 through the first week of July.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun
and around the Earth. The large, seen even without binoculars
(e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern
hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an
X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic
field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the
other flares. The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events
(SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in
the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).
Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often
significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands
by deep and irregular fadeouts.

SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the
Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades,
Seven Sisters star cluster. Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating
since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time. No one had
ever seen anything like it before.

Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots,
AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes
on. So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening
shortwave propagation conditions continues.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

K7EG wrote:

"I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an
increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity
impacting trends in radio disturbances. Tell me I am wrong and it's
just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and
worsening."

I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more
flares, solar wind, and disturbances. I think the disturbances are
normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to
see what is happening in real time:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

Beautiful aurora: https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6

Sunspot images: https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/

https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm

Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting
the ionosphere. https://bit.ly/428OAwM

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest. https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140,
97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4. 10.7 cm flux was 150.6,
164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12,
with a mean of 17.1. Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17,
11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP22
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 22 ARLP022
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 2, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP022
ARLP022 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
previous week.

Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
7.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

"What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.

"Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

"Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

Mike, AK7ML wrote:

"I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
in time.

"For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

A story about a big sunspot:

https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth

I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
comes from September 2002 QST):

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
Sound. At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
Japan, or so I heard at the time.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
11, with a mean of 7.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 9, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
from 155.3 to 166.8.

Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
into Mexico at a similar distance.

Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

"In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
the longer shortwave bands.

"Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

"The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
whose season is approaching its peak.

"Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
ionograms.

"As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
improvement when Summer ends there - which fortunately will be much
earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
the RSGB:

http://bit.ly/45TjWuA

Mike, W9NY wrote:

"Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

"I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
propagation bulletin.

The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
analysis and custom graphing.

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
with a mean of 8.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24 ARLP024
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 16, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index .

Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

On June 14 Spaceweather.com reported two new sunspot groups emerging
across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
16-23.

These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

"However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
until a week from now.

"Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
shortwave band.

"Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

"Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

"We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
days, including smaller storms."

K6LMN wrote:

"It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

He sent this to N0JK:

"We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
been fairly quiet.

"So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03 DM04 all around LA.
I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

"Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
E-skip.

"A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

"I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
E-skip?

"I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

"Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3NgsByW

A video too:

https://bit.ly/43Em3B1

A study of the Sun's coldest region:

https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu

More sunspots.

https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6

Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
with a mean of 6.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP25
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 25 ARLP025
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 23, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP025
ARLP025 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
21.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
30 through August 3.

These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr

So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
weekend?

Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
include data for the day prior.

X1.1 solar flare:

https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA

Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
of existential threat. Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
observatory does.

https://bit.ly/444VhSk

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov

Reader David Moore shared this video:

https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video

Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
Prediction Center.

He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
peak.

John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
affects routing of international flights.

He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/ for this fascinating article about
setting up a personal space weather station. It is under the
heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26 ARLP026
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 30, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
likely in the days ahead."

See https://spaceweather.com/ for continuing coverage.

Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
follows.

There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
another on June 26 and another on June 27.

Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
together.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
the July 12-13 prediction.

The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
USAF space weather group.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

"In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

"The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

"Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
20 June.

"On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

"Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

"The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

"AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
throughout the whole HF spectrum."

Pat, W5THT wrote:

"I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
observation.

"There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
meter propagation to Europe.

"Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana. This is not
the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
confirmed?

"Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
someone younger than me has already done the research."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

"A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

"Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI

Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ

"Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/46rC3YU

Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC

Another Solar Cycle article:

https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y

Yet another Carrington Event article:

https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o

Article about Solar max:

https://bit.ly/44jM5tP

A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

https://bit.ly/445vtWf

Flares and how they are measured:

https://bit.ly/3prvtRs

A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
8, with a mean of 9.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP27
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27 ARLP027
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 7, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP027
ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in
21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

"SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH: It's official: The average
sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high. Solar Cycle 25 has
shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to
rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even
back before the birth of radio?

Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer
2025. Later that was revised to 2024. Now I am seeing occasional
references to a cycle peak at the end of this year.

From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through
June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between
sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another
higher average.

Here is the difference. If they are just counting the total number
of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily
sunspot numbers. The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it
gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each
sunspot in those groups.

But I stand by my numbers. They are all from NOAA and appear at the
end of each bulletin.

But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may
be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of
sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl

This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in
June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym

But what does this mean? It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots,
but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average. The
minimum sunspot number is 11. This would be one sunspot group
containing one spot. They are always whole, not fractional
integers.

There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on
July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July
5.

Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together.
Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while
average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A
index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from
9.9 to 8.

Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155
on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July
19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July
26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30
through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on
August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July
10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5
on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2
to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to
9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is
about 27.5 days.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar
astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its
immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24. But now we have a twenty-one
year peak. And we expect a continued increase for about two more
years.

The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the
ionization rate of the ionosphere. Yet the current conditions for
shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of
solar activity - they are worse.

But that's not all. Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some
of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to
see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms. History
repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great
Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever
recorded in X-ray (X45).

The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than
the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last
appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare. Two days later it
eclipsed.

We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the
growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed
the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and
will continue to grow. With its predicted higher activity, we could
see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as
the middle of next week.

Tamitha Skov, from July 1. https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ

Blackout http://bit.ly/46tTRT8 https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz

Stormy weekend? https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119,
126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1. 10.7 cm flux was
162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of
164.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7,
with a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5,
and 9, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP028
ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP28
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 28 ARLP028
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 14, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP028
ARLP028 Propagation de K7RA

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY
THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME
impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the
possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July
6-12.

Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers
rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased
from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above
the average for the previous seven days.

Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A
index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A
index from 8 to 8.1.

The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A
index was 40. The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11.
The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200,
202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July
22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170
on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August
6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175
on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through
August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on
August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported:

"A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every
few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all
longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare
could be in the offing."

See Spaceweather.com for updates.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots
that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it
remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite
was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares
almost daily.

In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested
that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

But there was no indication that these would be areas with a
diametrically different type of activity.

The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be
observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position,
it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the
record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it
can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is
approaching.

AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several
M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class
flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain
that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the
following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased
significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.

"There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the
trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the
changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math
to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These
results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region
electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and
electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled
the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere
versus the impact on the ionosphere.

See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC

They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the
amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron
densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in
2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple
km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several
percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10
or so km."

Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

https://bit.ly/44ovzsh

Flare video (with music.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ

Huge sunspot: https://bit.ly/44EcqTz

Tamitha Skov reports: https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183,
181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6,
161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a
mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6,
with a mean of 8.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP29
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 29 ARLP029
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 21, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP029
ARLP029 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux
increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this
week. Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and
another two on July 19.

Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9
this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and
170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on
August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August
9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August
15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August
26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5
on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on
August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August
18-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity,
with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun. Some
of these have been the source of CMEs. If the Earth has been
affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in
MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the
afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but
not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15.
Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it
cannibalized the previous CME. Together, they hit the Earth on July
18.

But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting
M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this
flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm. Although MUFs
were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent
occurrences of attenuation.

Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's
magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic
storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report
will have been completed and sent out.

Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it
has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's
troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is
rather the opposite. It has been the subject of a number of
scientific papers in recent years.

It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current
MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of
the twentieth century. Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux
SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured
and published.

F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/ "

News from N8II in West Virginia.

"The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity
levels are normally quite low this summer. In the IARU contest I
observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with
Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan,
and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.

I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC. At
1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I
started running a pile up on CW.

The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I
worked a loud Japanese station.

During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M. I
also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to
Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday
about 1130 UTC. I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high
bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South
Pacific stations.

Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from
here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF
contest. I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than
expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6

Double peaked flare. https://bit.ly/46ZoznE

Astronomy club observes sunspots. https://bit.ly/46SaacR

Aurora. https://bit.ly/44FxM2U

Scientific American. https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB

Early peak. https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj

Cannibal eruption. https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W

Great video of eruption. https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA

The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99,
149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was 202.9,
180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with
a mean of 12.9. Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16,
and 7, with a mean of 12.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP030
ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP30
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 30 ARLP030
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA July 28, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP030
ARLP030 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week
(July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven
days.

Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29,
158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on
August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August
14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160
on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on
August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180
on September 2-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July
30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August
10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August
20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10
and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in
recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western
limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the
remaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few
days.

On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in
accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and
did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at
about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding
with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The
Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July.
The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a
deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance
actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear
whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that
we did not detect.

Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next
comment on August 3, but on August 10."

Sunspots, flares and aurora. https://bit.ly/44JxcRp

Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun. https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b

Rocket punches hole in ionosphere. https://bit.ly/3KceBFB

Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from
Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend
had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from
Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

Another CME. https://bit.ly/44LhRjx

On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

"A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter
just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major
power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of
fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet.
Maybe next time?"

Massive flare? https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov. https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell
us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins

Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103,
117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1 10.7 cm flux was
184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of
172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and
21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8,
12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - Little Rock, Arkansas (432:1/112)