ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270521
SWODY2
SPC AC 270520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and isolated hail are
possible from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and
central and southern Appalachians Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail may occur in the central
High Plains.

...Synopsis...

Considerable trough amplification is forecast over the eastern CONUS
this period, aided by the propagation of the mid/upper-level jet
streaks from the Great Lakes and OH Valley through VA and NC. A
series of vorticity maxima is forecast on the cyclonic side of the
jet streaks, which will enhance forcing for ascent over the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, the primary low
pressure is expected to deepen over the Delmarva with a secondary
cyclone over western NY. A lee trough will extend from the Delmarva
low south-southwest along the Piedmont, ahead of a cold front moving
through the TN Valley and central and southern Appalachians.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians...

Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially severe with damaging
winds) are expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning from the lower
Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. The longevity and areal
extent of the early-day storms will be a determinant in where more
robust air mass destabilization will take place during the
afternoon. The 00Z HREF calibrated thunder probabilities suggest the
most likely areas for persistent morning storms will be from NY and
PA into the Delmarva and WV. To the south of those locations,
stronger daytime heating appears more probable, which, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will yield
moderate to potentially strong afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1500-2500+ J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and lee
trough as background forcing for ascent strengthens in the left exit
region of the approaching upper-level jet streak. The presence of
the mid/upper-level wind maxima will yield long hodographs with
sufficient vertical shear for supercells and bowing structures. The strengthening shear combined with cooling mid-level temperatures
will be supportive of large-hail production with any supercells that
form. Otherwise, damaging winds will be the primary hazard,
especially with any storm clusters or bowing line segments. Some
tornado threat could also materialize Tuesday afternoon into evening
near and south of the Delmarva surface low where slightly stronger
low-level shear is forecast.

...Central High Plains...

Strong heating of a moist, upslope-flow air mass is expected to
yield a moderately unstable environment by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development appears possible by mid- to late afternoon along the
high terrain within a kinematic environment featuring 30-35 kt
westerly deep-layer shear. Transient supercell structures appear
possible, which suggest some marginally severe hail potential,
despite the warm mid-level temperatures. There is some model signal
for storm clustering over the adjacent High Plains by evening, at
which point the threat for isolated severe wind gusts would increase.

..Mead.. 07/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 280541
SWODY2
SPC AC 280539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds
appear possible Wednesday afternoon and early evening over southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Isolated severe storms capable of
severe wind gusts and large hail may occur over the northern High
Plains Wednesday afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the Mid-Atlantic with
associated troughing extending south along the Atlantic Coast. Some
mid-level flow enhancement is forecast across the Carolinas into GA
Wednesday afternoon in conjunction with a weak disturbance moving
through the base of the trough. Elsewhere, an upper high will remain
anchored over the southern Rockies with a series of perturbations
rotating through the western into northern periphery of that feature.

At the surface, a cool front will settle south into the southeast
Atlantic coastal areas and central and eastern Gulf states by
afternoon with the boundary extending northwest into the central
Plains. Farther west, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen over the
northern High Plains with an associated lee trough extending into
the central High Plains.

...Southeast...

Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the
70s are expected to yield a strongly unstable, prefrontal air mass
by afternoon with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. The glancing
influence of the mid-level wave passing to the immediate north will
combine with modest frontal convergence to foster scattered
thunderstorms by afternoon from central and southern AL into
southern GA and northern FL. While the strongest deep-layer shear is
expected to remain across the post-frontal air mass, a modest
increase in mid-level flow will overspread the frontal zone. That,
along with the strong buoyancy, high precipitable water content, and
steepening low-level lapse rates will be supportive of damaging wet microbursts, especially if some cold pool organization can occur.

...Northern High Plains...

Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant moderate instability
(e.g., MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) are forecast by afternoon to the
east of the surface low and lee trough. Strong daytime heating and
the approach of a weak mid-level disturbance from the west are
expected to erode the cap, allowing for widely scattered storm
development from late afternoon into evening. Model soundings
indicate a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, which suggests the potential for high-based,
transient supercell structures with an associated risk for localized
severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail. There is some model
signal for a potentially greater severe wind gust threat developing
over western into central ND Wednesday evening. Should that signal
persist, an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be required.

...Southern New England...

A zone of enhanced low-level shear is forecast to develop to the
immediate east of the deep-layer cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday. Clouds and precipitation are expected to limit air mass destabilization within the zone of stronger shear, which should
preclude a severe weather threat. However, if later model runs
indicate stronger instability than is currently forecast, low severe
weather probabilities may be required.

..Mead.. 07/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 290543
SWODY2
SPC AC 290542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Plains Thursday
morning will translate into the upper Midwest, while a trailing
disturbance moves through the mid MO Valley. Some enhancement of the
mid-level flow is forecast with the secondary system over the
central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to
track from SD into MN, along a cool front moving through the upper
MS Valley and the northern Plains into the central Plains. A
secondary low is forecast to deepen along the front over central KS.

...Northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and the
central Plains...

Latest model guidance continues to indicate showers and
thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Thursday across the northern Plains
into the mid MO Valley, within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the lead short-wave trough. A subset of that convection
may linger into afternoon with associated cloud cover limiting
daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Where stronger
heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low/mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the cool front and any
differential heating/outflow boundaries associated with previous
and/or active convection. A separate area of storms may also develop
later in the afternoon over eastern MT in the vicinity of a surface
low and lee trough. Damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard,
though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.

A number of physics-based models and AI guidance indicate a corridor
from south-central SD into central or eastern NE as being a
preferred location for upscale growth of storms into a
cold-pool-driven MCS Thursday afternoon into evening, which would
enhance the damaging-wind potential. That scenario appears plausible
as the consensus of model guidance depicts that zone as having the
most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and modest
vertical shear. Given these considerations, a 15% wind probability
contour and related level 2/Slight Risk have been included to
account for that potential.

Enhanced moisture transport and storm-relative inflow along a
nocturnal low-level jet are likely to sustain a complex of storms
with some damaging wind risk Thursday night, mainly over eastern KS
into the mid MO Valley.

...Raton Mesa vicinity...

Convergence along the southward-moving front and/or upslope in its
immediate wake are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered
storms by mid afternoon along the high terrain. While vertical will
remain relatively weak, the presence of a steep-lapse-rate
environment, featuring a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.

...Central and eastern Gulf Coast...

Early-day thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far
northeast Gulf and central FL Peninsula. To the north of that
convection, model guidance indicates a corridor of moderate to
strong instability developing by afternoon in the vicinity of a
stalled front. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected within
that zone of stronger air mass destabilization with steepening
low-level lapse rates and high precipitable water content supportive
of locally damaging wet microbursts.

..Mead.. 07/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 091738
SWODY2
SPC AC 091737

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY FROM
ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening from northern Illinois eastward into western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible
from parts of the central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with
scattered strong storms over southern Arizona.

...From northern IL eastward into PA...
A leading shortwave trough may support early day thunderstorms over
portions of NY and PA, though probably not immediately severe. Some
chance exists for re-development from southern New England into NJ
during the afternoon as a surface trough develops, and at least
isolated severe activity is possible. Additional afternoon storms
may develop across the remainder of NY and PA as instability
develops behind the initial wave with areas of strong gusts and
marginal hail.

While isolated wind/hail may occur during the early to mid afternoon
as the air mass becomes uncapped, a greater coverage of severe
storms is expected during the late afternoon and into the evening
from southern WI/IL into IN and OH. Here, a large area of strong
instability will develop, with a persistent/deepening boundary layer
theta-e plume out of the southwest. The high PWAT, relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates, and deep layer shear of 40-50 kt will support
supercell development, with possible bowing structures with time.
Large hail, perhaps an isolated tornado, and damaging winds will be
possible.

...Northern Plains...
Southeast surface winds will maintain 60s F dewpoints into NE and SD
during the afternoon as strong heating occurs near a surface trough
over the High Plains/Black Hills. This will occur beneath moderate
westerly flow aloft, which will elongate hodographs and produce
favorable deep-layer shear for long-lived cells or bows. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but the conditional risk for large damaging
hail and wind is high. At least isolated cells are expected to form
near the Black Hills and into western NE where heating will be
strong, with perhaps greater storm chances increasing after 00Z into
the central Dakotas with the aid of a modest nocturnal low-level
jet.

...Southern AZ...
Substantial moisture will remain over the area Monday, with PWAT
over 1.25" and areas of 60s F dewpoints. Westerly surface winds are
forecast to develop during the afternoon over southern AZ, which
when combined with the deep easterlies aloft, will support
westward-propagating cells. Storms should form near the Rim and over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ, with locally severe gusts as
activity moves across the lowlands. A storm or two could potentially
produce small hail as well as deep-layer effective shear will be
over 30 kt.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2026

$$


--- ScorpioWeb v0.38a (Linux/x86_64)
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)