FOUS11 KWBC 190849
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 19 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 22 2026

...California... Day 1...

...Heavy, disruptive snowfall for the California ranges persists
through today...

A pair of shortwave troughs along the OR and northern CA coasts
phase this morning over northern CA and support intensifying
onshore flow and heavy snow across the Sierra Nevada, CA Cascades,
and higher SoCal ranges today. The upper trough the pushes across
NV tonight, bringing northerly/drying flow and a cut off to snow
late this evening.

Additional snowfall exceeding 1 foot is 60-90% likely along the
entirety of the Sierra Nevada chain where snow levels will around
2500ft this morning and 3000ft this afternoon. Snow levels in SoCal
rise from 3000ft ot 5000ft today before dropping to 2500ft tonight
as precip/snow cuts off.

...Intermountain West/Southwest to the Rockies... Days 1-2...

Pacific moisture spilling over the Sierra Nevada and SoCal ranges
will spread much needed snow over the Great Basin this afternoon
and the southern Rockies tonight into Friday with snow levels of
4000 to 5000ft. Day 1 snow probs for >8" are 50-80% over the higher
NV basin ranges, 50-90% for the southern Utah ranges and the Kaibab
Plateau in northern AZ. This then translates east through the San
Juans for the Day 1.5 snow probs for >8".

...Central Plains to the northern Great Lakes... Days 1/2...

A shortwave trough over CO this morning will continue to take on a
negative tilt today as it tracks south of a low over northern MN
and becoming a closed low over the L.P. of MI Friday morning. The
overlap of height falls/PVA and the left exit region of a
strengthening subtropical jet streak is promoting surface
cyclogenesis in the lee of the CO Rockies that tracks across KS
this morning before turning northeast to southern WI this
afternoon/evening.

Guidance tonight trended south to where the EC-AIFS has had its
main QPF streak for several runs. Increasing 850-600mb fgen behind
a cold front, and overlaid with an deformation axis NW of the
surface low in response to the deepening mid-level wave will drive
ascent into the TROWAL. The associated heavy snow has developed
over southeast WY and northeast CO which will track across Nebraska
in line with its orientation today before curving northeast over
Iowa into Wisconsin tonight and up through the U.P. Friday morning.
A narrow corridor of heavy snowfall of up to 1.5"/hr per the 00Z
HREF is expected across Nebraska into Iowa with CSI noted in
regional cross-sections.

Day 1 snow probs for >6" have risen to 50-70% over central Nebraska
and around 30% for Omaha to Des Moines. Low probs around 10% then
extend over northeast IA into southwest WI for Day 1.5. Lake
enhancement coming around the deepening low then invigorates heavy
snow over the U.P. late tonight through Friday with Day 1.5 snow
probs 30-60% for >6".

...Northeast... Day 2...

The aforementioned mid-level low over the L.P. of MI by Friday
morning shears apart/opens over NY state Friday night though it
still has plenty of energy to translate to a coastal low off the
northern Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon/evening. Warm air advection
precip surged north through PA/NY state and New England Friday,
pivoting east north of the developing low Friday evening.

The warm nose is less progressive in 00Z guidance, though a wintry
mix is still expected to develop over northeast PA and southern NY
early Friday with heavier snow (rates above 1"/hr per the 00Z HREF)
over the Adirondacks, Greens, and across southern NH for the
afternoon and evening. Day 2 snow probs for >6" are 40-80% over
this terrain/area. Day 1.5 ice probs for >0.25" are around 10% in
the Catskills to the Poconos. The warm nose should be strong enough
to allow a stripe of sleet accum between the ice and snow with the
progression of the warm nose key to where the southern boundary of
heaviest snow sets up.

Jackson
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