Mesoscale Discussion 0096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
Areas affected...northern Indiana vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191503Z - 191630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated elevated thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail for a couple of hours this morning. The overall risk
should remain limit in magnitude, and a watch is not expected at this time.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within
an area of warm advection to the north of a surface warm front.
Morning regional RAOBs and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicated cold
temperatures aloft supporting midlevel lapse rates greater than 7
C/km. As a result, MUCAPE has increased to 250-500 J/kg. Sufficient
effective shear for organized storms is present. Furthermore,
elongated hodographs with increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft
are noted. This environment may sporadically support strong storms
producing marginal hail up to around 1 inch in diameter. The
magnitude of this initial convection is expected to remain limit,
precluding watch issuance at this time.