AWUS01 KWNH 030931
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-031500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...northern TX into southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030929Z - 031500Z

Summary...An axis of training heavy rain is expected to impact
portions of northern TX into southern OK through 15Z with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches are
expected through 15Z along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...Looping regional radar imagery through 09Z showed a
QLCS progressing eastward across OK at roughly 40-50 kt but the
southwestern flank of this convective line has largely stalled
across northwestern TX, between US 180 and US 380 to the north of
Abilene. Area VAD winds at 850 mb showed 40-45 kt from the south
across central to western TX, overrunning the rain-cooled airmass
where 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was present along and south of the
outflow boundary (per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis). In addition to the
low level forcing in place, flow aloft was diffluent and
divergent, within the left exit region of a RAP-estimated 110-120
kt upper level jet max crossing Big Bend NP.

Despite the typical diurnal cycle favoring weakening of the low
level jet through 15Z, RAP forecasts suggest only slight weakening
of the 850 mb winds (into the 30-40 kt range) as a shortwave
trough axis over the southern AZ/NM border translates eastward
this morning. However, infrared cloud tops have been warming
across northwestern TX over the past hour, perhaps due to a
combination of the intrusion of dry air aloft as seen on Layered
PW imagery and weakening moisture flux.

Despite the recent weakening, a flash flood threat will remain
across the Red River Valley over the next few hours as areas of
training will likely persist into the mid-morning hours with storm
motions parallel to the low level axis of forcing. The threat for
training and 1 to 2+ in/hr rates is expected to shift ENE across
the Red River into portions of southern OK through 15Z along with
additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).
Flash flooding will continue to be possible over the next few
hours with an expected weakening of rainfall intensity and
training potential toward the end of the MPD valid time (13-15Z).

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35269523 35099451 34269451 33389623 32939780
32710002 33489970 34339837 34829718 35079643


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AWUS01 KWNH 261015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into southwestern/central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261013Z - 261500Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue across portions of
the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX and southwestern OK over the
next few hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr and peak
additional totals of 3 to 6 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and infrared satellite imagery at 0945Z
showed an MCS advancing slowly eastward across the TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK. Embedded thunderstorms were located along
and north of a wavy quasi-stationary front which extended westward
across northern TX, just south of the Red River, into the southern
TX Panhandle and eastern NM. A couple of forward propagating
segments were observed toward the southeastern edge of the MCS (in
the vicinity of Childress), located south of an eastward advancing
MCV near Pampa. VAD wind plots showed 35 to 46 kt of southerly
flow over west-central to central TX which backed to a
southeasterly direction near the Red River, supporting the robust
transport of low level moisture northward atop the surface front.

The training and repeating nature of cells along and north of the
front have supported peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr across
southern portions of the TX Panhandle within the unstable
environment. The front marked the northern edge of 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE with 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE located north of the front via the
09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As the MCV over the TX Panhandle continues to advance eastward
into western OK over the next few hours, continued convection
enhanced through warm air advection will spread eastward beneath
convectively influenced diffluent flow aloft. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms in the wake of the MCV over the western TX Panhandle
are expected to continue to congeal as they advance eastward and
eventually bow southeastward into the low level inflow layer with
periods of training. Some of the heaviest rain is expected to
occur south of the MCV track where new thunderstorm development
ahead of the advancing southeastern flank of the MCS should setup
a prolonged period of heavy rain with additional totals of 3 to 6
inches possible through 16Z, most probable over portions of
southwestern OK or perhaps far northwestern TX.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36249818 35819712 34999736 33889853 33659943
33710086 33810202 34010268 34240320 34860353
35430296 36000126

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AWUS01 KWNH 301246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-301500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
612 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301011Z - 301500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous coverage of flash flooding is
expected from portions of northwestern TX into central and
northeastern OK through 15Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally
higher) are likely to impact portions of the region which have
recently received heavy rainfall, potentially leading to significant/considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 10Z showed a forward propagating
line segment which extended from southwestern OK into northwestern
TX, located along and north of a quasi-stationary front which
draped southwestward from southern OK into the western Permian
Basin of TX. Peak MRMS-derived hourly rainfall with the advancing
line has generally been 1-2 inches. Over southern OK, a band of
training resulted in 2 to 5 inches of rain from northern Wilbarger
County, TX to Stephens County, OK, out ahead of the advancing line
segment. In addition, immediately in the wake of the forward
propagating line segment was an additional/small cluster between
MAF and LBB, slowly advancing eastward.

While some minor weakening of low level winds is expected over the
next few hours with the diurnal cycle, 25-45 kt of flow at 850 mb
is likely to maintain robust clusters of thunderstorms from
northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK over the next 3-5
hours. While line segments are expected to generally propagate
toward the east, there will be instances of training within the
line segments where orientation matches the SW to NE oriented
deeper layer steering flow. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be
likely (locally higher) with an additional 2-4 inches through 15Z
for portions of the region. Due to areas of ongoing flash flooding
from recent heavy rainfall, scattered to numerous occurrences of
flash flooding are expected and locally significant/considerable
flooding could affect locations on either side of the Red River
which have picked up 4+ inches of rain over the past 12 hours.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36369678 35909572 35239553 34019604 32449740
31839848 31689945 31680041 31910100 32160138
32310186 32550216 32960214 33430166 33780050
34809961 35819813

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AWUS01 KWNH 081807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-090005-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0403
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 PM EDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles into Northwest TX and Southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081805Z - 090005Z

SUMMARY...Organizing supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon and
gradual consolidation into a severe MCS by this evening may result
in some scattered concerns for flash flooding where the cells to
merge or locally train.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows
strong diurnal heating over the southern High Plains which is
already favoring MLCAPE values as high as 2000 to 3000+ J/kg. A
capping inversion which still remains in place will continue to
steadily erode via additional surface heating over the next few hours.

This will set the stage for well-organized and heavy showers and
thunderstorms to develop near and to the south of a cold front
dropping south toward the southern Plains, and also near and north
of a retreating warm front situated farther south over western and
northern TX. Already a northwest/southeast axis of elevated
thunderstorms has developed over the last couple of hours over
northwest TX given steep mid-level lapse rates.

A highly sheared environment exists with effective bulk shear
values of 30 to 50 kts in place, and these magnitudes are forecast
to slowly increase through the afternoon hours. The combination of
this and strong boundary layer instability will favor developing
and expanding coverage of supercell thunderstorms by mid-afternoon.

Aside from well-defined severe hazards, there will be a heavy
rainfall component to the supercells considering the degree of low
to mid-level moisture that is in place. The latest CIRA-ALPW data
shows relatively enhanced moisture profiles from the surface up
through the 700 mb level, and so many of the supercell
thunderstorms will be capable of highly efficient rainfall rates
that could reach 2 inches/hour.

By early this evening, merging/consolidating supercell
thunderstorms should lead the way for a severe MCS, but as this
process occurs, there will be sufficient concerns for cell-mergers
and cell-training such that some rainfall totals reach 2 to 4+ inches.

This may result in concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding
which will include some localized urban impacts.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36960058 36509954 35759881 35019838 34079832
33409886 33490002 34210078 34820146 35690220
36250233 36830196

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