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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Predic
From
Weather Alert@618:250/1 to
All on Mon Mar 29 14:24:00 2021
ACUS03 KWNS 290707
SWODY3
SPC AC 290706
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday from the
western Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and Virginia.
Strong wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
...Western Gulf Coast/Southeast/Southern
Appalachians/Carolinas/Virginia...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southeastward into the southeastern U.S. being positioned
form the western Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians by midday.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, pockets of weak
instability are expected to develop, with surface dewpoints ahead of
the front in the lower to mid 60s F. Increasing instability and
low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will likely
result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Near the
front, deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 kt range.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will make isolated
damaging wind gusts a possibility. Hail could also occur with the
stronger cores. Any severe threat is expected to be marginal and
confined to the mid to late afternoon when surface temperatures will
be maximized.
..Broyles.. 03/29/2021
$$
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From
Weather Alert@618:250/1 to
All on Sun Apr 4 09:22:00 2021
ACUS03 KWNS 040728
SWODY3
SPC AC 040728
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Apr 04 2021
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the central Great
Plains into the western Ozarks late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday night.
...Central Great Plains into the Ozarks...
A mid-level low and attendant trough, initially over western WY and
the eastern Great Basin, will move east-southeastward to the central
High Plains. A belt of strong cyclonically curved 500 mb flow will
move through the base of the trough and overspread a destabilizing
warm sector across the central and southern Great Plains. In the
low levels, a surface cyclone over western KS will develop eastward
and elongate as a cold front over the central High Plains surges
southward into northwest TX and the northwest half of OK by early
Wednesday morning.
A capped but gradually moistening boundary layer will spread
northward into northern OK and KS during the day on strengthening
southerly low-level flow. Strong deep-layer ascent near the surface
low will likely favor initial thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong
flow will support storm organization with large hail and severe
gusts the primary hazard. A strengthening LLJ during the evening
over OK/KS and associated isentropic lift will probably lead to
additional storms and the organization of a thunderstorm cluster
moving east-southeast during the night into parts of southeast KS
and adjacent parts of OK/AR/MO.
Farther south across OK, thunderstorm development is less likely
during the day owing to the aforementioned cap. Nonetheless, a low
probability scenario for a storm or two southward along the dryline
cannot be ruled out. It seems plausible the risk for isolated to
scattered storms will focus overnight across northern and eastern OK
as strong large-scale forcing promotes isolated to scattered storms.
Hail/wind would be the primary risks with this activity.
..Smith.. 04/04/2021
$$
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From
Weather Alert@618:250/1 to
All on Fri May 7 13:45:00 2021
ACUS03 KWNS 070725
SWODY3
SPC AC 070724
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri May 07 2021
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms appear possible on Sunday from
parts of central/east Texas to the Mid-South.
...Southern Plains to the Mid-South and Lower Ohio Valley...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance from the
southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH
Valley through Sunday evening. A weak surface low over southwestern
MO Sunday morning is forecast to develops towards the lower OH
Valley in the same time frame, while a trailing cold front moves
southeastward across parts of central/east TX, AR, and the
Mid-South. A strong southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to shift
quickly eastward from the Mid-South vicinity to the OH Valley by
Sunday afternoon.
Mainly elevated storms will probably be ongoing Sunday morning
across portions of southern MO/IL in the warm advection regime
associated with the low-level jet. In the wake of this early
activity, low-level moisture should increase ahead of the
southeastward-moving cold front. Mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints
appear likely to be in place across much of the warm sector by
Sunday afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass
should foster moderate to potentially strong instability ahead of
the front, particularly across central/east TX into parts of
northern LA and much of AR. Even though large-scale ascent across
this region may remain fairly muted, most guidance indicates
convection will develop along the cold front. Forecast deep-layer
shear appears strong enough to support organized severe storms, with
both large hail and damaging straight-line winds possible. Upscale
growth into a line along the front may also occur. These storms
should eventually weaken with eastward extent across the lower MS
Valley as they outpace the better low-level moisture return and
encounter a less unstable airmass.
Farther north across parts of the mid MS Valley into the Lower OH
Valley, instability should be weaker owing to the influence of the
morning convection and slightly less low-level moisture return.
Still, the presence of low to perhaps mid 60s surface dewpoints
along and just east of the weak surface low suggest some potential
for surface-based convection across this region. Various forecast
soundings indicate strong shear in the low levels, but weak to
minimal instability. Although some severe threat may materialize
across parts of southern IL/IN into western/central KY Sunday afternoon/evening, this potential currently appears too limited to
include any more than a Marginal Risk for these areas.
..Gleason.. 05/07/2021
$$
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From
Weather Alert@618:250/1 to
All on Fri May 28 10:06:00 2021
ACUS03 KWNS 280659
SWODY3
SPC AC 280658
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Permian Basin and southwest Texas. Large to very large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.
...Southern High Plains...
A mid- to upper-level trough near southern CA Saturday morning will
move east into southern AZ/northwestern Mexico by late Saturday
night. A belt of moderately strong west-southwesterly 500 mb flow
(35-40 kt) will nose eastward across northern Mexico into southern
NM and southwest TX during the evening/overnight. Moist
southeasterly upslope flow will maintain a seasonably moist airmass
in the Permian Basin featuring 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will
result in steep 0-2 km lapse rates and a moderate to very unstable
airmass by late afternoon from southwest TX into southeast NM
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Veering flow in the low to mid levels
beneath 70 kt 250 mb flow, will result in a wind profile supporting
supercells. By early evening, low-level shear is forecast to
strengthen coincident with a strengthening LLJ over west TX and
perhaps a narrow window of opportunity for a tornado risk with the
stronger supercells. Upscale growth into a cluster or two will
probably occur and this activity may persist into the late evening
with severe gusts becoming the primary hazard.
Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL
Peninsula, eastern NC, and over the central High Plains.
..Smith.. 05/28/2021
$$
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From
Weather Alert@618:250/1 to
All on Fri Jun 4 10:35:00 2021
ACUS03 KWNS 040729
SWODY3
SPC AC 040727
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 04 2021
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail will be
possible across a portion of the upper Mississippi Valley as well as
the southern High Plains on Sunday.
...Upper Mississippi Valley region...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within belt of stronger
westerlies will move along the international border and through
southern Manitoba and western Ontario during the day. A cold front
will accompany this feature and move through the northern Plains and
into upper MS Valley during the day. By late afternoon the front
should extend from northwest MN southwest through eastern SD into
western NE. A corridor of moderate instability is expected in the
pre-frontal warm sector with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The deeper
forcing for ascent attending the shortwave trough will remain north
of the international border, but frontal convergence might be
sufficient to initiate a few storms by late afternoon, especially
across MN. Storms that develop might become capable of producing a
few locally strong wind gusts and hail through early evening before
weakening as the surface layer begins to stabilize.
...Southern High Plains...
Closed upper low currently situated over TX is forecast to drift
slowly northward into OK Sunday. Modest northwest winds aloft will
prevail upstream of this feature over the southern High Plains. A
corridor of moderate instability will likely evolve where plume of
steeper lapse rates overlaps the western fringe of richer low-level
moisture across west TX. Potential will exist for a few storms to
develop over the higher terrain and within the more deeply mixed
regime across eastern NM and spread southeast. Southeasterly
low-level winds beneath modest northwest winds aloft will contribute
to 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will support some
threat for large hail and locally strong wind gusts as storms spread
southeast during the late afternoon through mid evening.
..Dial.. 06/04/2021
$$
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