Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 19 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026

...Potential for severe storms across the central Plains with heavy and
flash flooding threats across the Midwest...

...Severe storms across mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday to Wednesday
night...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast while building into
the Southwest...


Around of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms developing
across the northern Plains will move toward the Upper Midwest associated
with a cold front.
Meanwhile,a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast over northern
Iowa, southern Wisconsin, extreme southeastern Minnesota, and farther
south across the central Plains as the cold front from the north collides
with a warm front from the south. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from northeastern Colorado, central Nebraska, northwestern and northeastern Kansas. WPC and SPC both have Slight Risks out for Excessive Rainfall and severe storms in the heart of the Midwest where flash
flooding and storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may occur.

As the cold front continues to track east towards the Northeast on
Wednesday while low pressure in the southern Plains helps produce
additional storms from the central Rockies to as far east as the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday night. On Thursday, WPC and SPC both have a level
2 risk for Excessive Rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley. On Friday, as the front progresses southward, WPC
has a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across much of the mid-South,
the Mid-Atlantic, and across the Desert Southwest.

Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in
a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. By Wednesday, as upper-level
ridging strengthens over the Southwest, some cases of record breaking
warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Extreme
Heat Warnings are in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with
widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretching from the Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City metro areas eastward to the Southeast coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the
scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable
friends, neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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